U.S. stays the course on space weapons

Reminder of space frontier's importance
Bretton Alexander, a former senior analyst at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy who worked on space issues for both the Clinton and the Bush administration, said the Chinese anti-satellite test is a reminder of why the United States believes it needs to protect its space-based capabilities.

“The Bush administration has been on the defensive about its policy language on the need to defend U.S. space assets,” Alexander said. “But this highlights that the threat is real and why we need to protect our assets.”

Early details of the event were first reported last Wednesday in a blog written by Jeffrey Lewis, executive director of Harvard’s Managing the Atom Project, on the Web site ArmsControlWonk.com and in a story posted Thursday on the Aviation Now Web site.

“This is an enormous mess they [the Chinese] have created. There is no excuse for what is a reckless, stupid and self-defeating decision on their part,” Lewis said in a telephone interview on Wednesday.

Lewis said a U.S. Air Force database of objects in orbit showed the Chinese FY-11 weather satellite intact on Jan. 11, but that the data a day later “showed about 40 pieces of debris, which is probably just the tip of the iceberg.” Lewis said. Space-Track.org is the Air Force Web site that provides public satellite tracking data.

Lewis said one positive result of the Chinese action could be a call for improved debris field modeling. “Our models of debris spread are quite speculative, so this event should help improve our models,” Lewis said.

Critical reaction
Reaction was almost universally critical of the Chinese actions.

“Space technologies are critical to the U.S. military and to the U.S. economy, so any action that puts our space assets at risk is a matter of great concern,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo., said in a statement issued by his office. Skelton said the committee “will carefully monitor activity that may impact the way the U.S. military utilizes space technology.”

A U.S.-based China watcher, who asked not to be identified, said the Chinese “shot themselves in the foot with this one. They couldn’t resist this demonstration of their capabilities after we came out with our space policy saying 'We are going to defend the heavens.' The new [U.S] space policy says we can defend the heavens with technology. But we can’t, and the Chinese just proved it.”

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Arthur Ding, a research fellow at the National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations in Taiwan, said China’s motivation is likely rooted in their perception of the new U.S. space policy.

“The perception is that the U.S. is attempting to dominate space and the U.S. refuses any space-related arms control,” Ding said. “Further, China suspects that the U.S. is attempting to militarize space in the future. ... A possible consequence is that space-related arms control is likely to be added to U.S.-China dialogue in the future,” he said.

Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the Naval War College’s department of national security decision making and one of the United States’ top experts on Chinese space issues, said the long-term impact of the incident will probably not be that severe.

“I think there will be a lot of very vocal rhetoric, but I don’t think it will have a substantive impact. There are just too many reasons for both of us to work together on so many issues,” she said.

Correspondent Wendell Minnick contributed to this article from Taipei. Staff writer Brian Berger contributed from Washington.

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