Oscar may scratch his head over best picture

ANALYSIS

By David Germain

updated 3:40 p.m. ET Jan. 22, 2007

LOS ANGELES - The Golden Globes, trade unions, movie critics and just about everyone else in Hollywood have weighed in on 2006's best movie achievements, helping to solidify the Academy Awards picture — and muddy it too.

With Oscar nominations due out Tuesday, a few clear front-runners and some intriguing wild cards have emerged, along with an unusually open race for the top prize.

Still to come are honors by the Directors Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild, whose nominations came out earlier this month. Those awards should help sort out the much of the Oscar outlook, but unlike most years, when a solid favorite often emerges, the best-picture category could remain up for grabs right up to awards night Feb. 25.

A look at how Oscar season is shaping up:

The sure things
Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker seemingly sewed up the best-actress and actor categories from the minute their films debuted last fall.

A grand dame of British drama, Mirren looks unbeatable for her turn as prim Elizabeth II in "The Queen." Mirren brings marvelous haughtiness and humanity to the maligned monarch as she blindly ignores — then awkwardly acknowledges — her subjects' pleas for royal reassurance and comfort over the death of Princess Diana in 1997.

If there's a best-actress dark horse, it's Penelope Cruz, who delivers a career performance full of heart and humor in "Volver," playing a woman coping with bizarre — and possibly supernatural — crises in her domestic life.

But with Mirren in the mix, Cruz almost certainly has to settle for runner-up status.

The quiet, even-keeled Whitaker, known more for hushed menace or gentle humor, explodes on screen as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland," presenting a figure of towering passion and depraved cruelty.

The fictionalized story casts the bombastic, bighearted and brutal Amin first as mentor — later as tormentor — of a young Scottish doctor seeking adventure in Africa.

The only actor with an outside chance at usurping Whitaker's Oscar crown is ...

The lion in winter
All the hard, hedonistic mileage of Peter O'Toole's life — and that of his character, a frail but still lecherous old actor — shows clearly on his face in "Venus," a portrait of a man whose libido still functions, even if his body doesn't.

O'Toole is tied with Richard Burton — his co-star in 1964's "Becket," which earned them both best-actor nominations — for the Oscar-futility record among actors, each nominated seven times but never winning.

With other best-actor nominations for such films as "Lawrence of Arabia," "My Favorite Year" and "The Lion in Winter," O'Toole was given an honorary Oscar four years ago, a prize he almost turned down, saying he thought he still had a chance to win the award outright.

There's an outside chance that still could happen, despite Whitaker's dominating performance. O'Toole is superb in "Venus," and the 74-year-old actor could prove a sentimental favorite among Oscar voters who believe he's been unduly overlooked.

The precedent is there: A year after the academy gave Henry Fonda an honorary award, the 76-year-old Hollywood legend finally won the best-actor Oscar, for "On Golden Pond."

The best-picture puzzle
The rousing Motown-era musical? The sweeping mob epic? The globe-trotting ensemble drama? The beloved road-trip romp? The sly, caustic palace tale?

Most years, a front-runner or two has emerged by now, but no clear favorite has stepped forward from this season's far-flung group of best-picture wannabes.

Almost certain to grab nominations are the musical "Dreamgirls," the crime saga "The Departed" and the monarchy chronicle "The Queen." The international drama "Babel" also looks like a safe bet, and the road tale "Little Miss Sunshine" has a strong shot to become a rare comedy that sneaks into the best-picture mix.

Clint Eastwood's World War II companion films, "Letters From Iwo Jima" and "Flags of Our Fathers," have outside chances, though neither has caught much fire with earlier awards or audiences. The suburban comic drama "Little Children" also has a shot.

"Dreamgirls" was the big winner at the Golden Globes with three prizes, including best musical or comedy. "Babel" came in leading the field with seven nominations but left with just one, for best drama.

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