After Saddam’s execution, outlook for Iraq grim

Lt. Col. Rick Francona Military analyst

The caption that accompanies the Associated Press photo here reads: "Iraqi children pass by a vandalized mural of the former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in Tikrit."

The word "vandalized" would indicate that the graffiti would be negative. However, the spray-painted Arabic actually reads, "Long live Saddam and the Baath [Party]."

The graffiti underscores the divisions in Iraq — and the execution of Saddam will likely only exacerbate the sectarian and ethnic violence taking place mostly in Baghdad.

It also has the potential to unleash a wave of Sunni violence in the Sunni Triangle, in those cities now well known as hotbeds of insurgency — Baquba, Ramadi, Fallujah, Samarra, Tikrit.

Now that Saddam has been executed, there is a good reason to be concerned about the convergence of events that may occur in January.

Escalation of troops expected
In addition to the execution, there is the ongoing deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division's 2nd Brigade from Fort Bragg to Kuwait to become the theater reserve for U.S. forces in Iraq.

The previous theater reserve, the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, was deployed to al-Anbar Province in November. The 2nd Brigade is the 82nd's "ready brigade," the brigade currently on standby duty for rapid deployment as needed. The initial battalion should be in place in 24 hours from deployment order. The fact that the ready brigade is being deployed indicates just how stretched the Army and Marines have become.

The deployment of the 2nd Brigade, totaling about 3,500 troops, is probably the first of the expected increases in the number of U.S. forces in Iraq.

In January, President Bush is expected to unveil his plan for the "change of course" in Iraq. I believe that the decision has already been made that there will be an increase in the number of U.S. troops deployed, although the exact numbers may not be as high as five brigades (about 20,000 troops).

It is interesting that the same generals, who claimed in the past that they did not need more troops, now do. I say that because the situation — the sectarian violence or civil war, depending on your perspective — has not significantly changed since the bombing of the Shiites’ Golden Mosque in Samarra in February that led to the escalation of violence in the first place.

What will the mission of additional troops be?
If there is going to be an increase in the number of troops, it is important that Bush spell out exactly what their mission will be.

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