Current events offer hints about year in travel

Rob Lovitt Travel writer • E-mail

For many travelers, 2006 couldn't end fast enough. For some it was the eye-popping price at the pump; for others, the groan-inducing breakdowns at baggage claim. Either way, it was clearly a year of long lines and short tempers.

So, what does 2007 hold in store? Good question, and while I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to propose an all-encompassing, one-size-fits-all answer, I think recent events offer some interesting hints about travel in the coming months. If nothing else, they’re worth considering before you book your next flight, rent another car or reserve a hotel room.

In the air
Think 2006 was a bumpy year for the airline business? Get ready for some more turbulence. Will US Airways be successful in its takeover bid for Delta? After US Air boosted its offering price, it's anybody's guess. Will other mergers be proposed and ultimately put together? They have and they will. And will the end result be greater efficiency, better service and lower fares? I wouldn’t count on it.

After five years of staggering losses, the U.S. airline industry has slashed fleets, jobs, services and anything else it could get its hands on to combat overcapacity, unsustainable pricing and sky-high fuel costs. And with little else to cut, mergers and buyouts probably start looking pretty attractive, especially since the industry is actually flirting with the prospect of profitability.

But I just don’t see them passing any savings on to the rest of us. Sure, in some cases, discount airlines may expand into new markets, putting a ceiling on potential fare increases. In others, more direct flights and increasingly efficient aircraft will counter tangled route maps and rising fuel costs. And yet, spot bargains aside, I just can’t see those factors outweighing the one-two punch of strong demand and fewer seats.

The Year of the Sneer Golly, it was a mean year, punctuated by as nasty a political campaign as you could ever imagine. MSNBC’s Alex Johnson sums it all up in his annual Year in Review. Slide show: Final Curtain Calls 2006 See most clicked stories of 2006 — and vote Will 2007 be a happy year for travelers? Joe Scarborough: '07 political predictions Why did they do it? The year in crime To see complete Year in Review section, click here

Or, to put it more bluntly, planes will continue to fly full and fares will go up in 2007. The American Express Global Business Travel Forecast pegs the increase in domestic economy-class fares at 3-6 percent for next year.

Most of us, though, will fly anyway, even if it means paying for pillows and cattle-car seating. We may get lucky – say, when a discount airline opens a new route and sparks a short-term fare war – but, for the most part, we’ll pony up for the full-fare ticket. If that’s the case, it’s not too early to start planning that spring fling or summer vacation right now.

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