Joe Scarborough's political predictions for 2007

REPUBLICANS

Rudy Giuliani

Virginia Mayo / AP Rudy Giuliani

Believe it or not, this guy keeps coming out on top in Republican preference polls for president despite the fact America’s mayor supports abortion, gay rights and gun control.

2007 will see Rudy making a rightward lurch on those positions and others, but position papers will not pose the biggest problem for the mayor. Instead, Rudy will have to explain to evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina why he and Newt Gingrich have had enough wives between them to start a basketball team complete with a sixth man. (I cast no stones. Rudy and I could field a starting five.)

With any luck, New York liberals like Mark Green and Al Sharpton will parachute into early GOP primary states to highlight just how abusive Rudy’s New York police force was to criminals during his reign. Once that word gets out, primary voters will give the mayor a free pass to run through another harem or two before settling on his ideal first lady for next year’s race. In 2007, family values will be more about my family’s safety than your candidate’s sex life.

John McCain

Rodrigo Abd / AP John McCain

You’ve got to love presidential politics. It brings out the absolute worst in everybody. That’s why predicting political currents is so damn easy.

Take John McCain.

For years, this war hero, turned Reagan Republican, turned political maverick, turned pop culture icon has been adored by Democrats and media types alike. Sen. McCain was the good Republican.  The guy who was willing to put country in front of party. The one Republican who cared about cleaning up money in politics.

Ahh. But now that this god-like creature has soared down from Mount Olympus to become the presumptive GOP nominee for president, we are learning he is a reactionary stooge who is no different from all those other dirty Republicans. McCain’s campaign manager, we are told, is responsible for the rise of Jack Abramoff, the corruption of Tom DeLay and the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. Besides, the candidate’s call to send more troops to Iraq only proves that in the end, John McCain is nothing more than an unreformed right-wing knuckle dragger.

McCain can only hope that liberal loons hold enough press conferences vilifying him in 2007 that the conservative base will take note and invite the Arizona senator back into the revival tent.

McCain will still be the presumptive GOP nominee at the end of 2007.

Mitt Romney

Chitose Suzuki / AP Mitt Romney

The Bushies love this guy. But the president made a deal with McCain in 2004 so expect to see him kept on the sidelines. That doesn’t mean Romney won’t raise a boatload of cash from friends of the first family and their political allies.

Romney will do well in fundraising but the once-moderate Massachusetts governor will fail to spark the conservative base he so desperately needs to run as the right-wing alternative to McCain or Giuliani. That leaves it open for Newt.

Newt Gingrich

Cheryl Senter / AP Newt Gingrich

Few political candidates are as unappealing from 100 yards as Newt Gingrich. The messy divorces, the endless gaffes, the hyped-up ethics charges and the fact his own party ran Gingrich out of town make the former Speaker seem like the worst of all candidates in 2008.

But look closer. See Newt on Meet the Press. See Newt wowing a college crowd on C-Span. See a campus radical stand up and attack Newt for his personal failings. See the young crowd boo Newt’s inquisitor. See Newt still speaking after 60 minutes and try to figure out why you are still paying attention. Maybe it’s because Gingrich is a political figure like none other in our time. A quirky, gifted, egomaniacal visionary, Gingrich is the historical figure who did more than anyone—Reagan included—to end the American welfare state as we knew it. Gingrich also began a movement that balanced the budget for the first time in a generation and did it more years in a row than any other Congress since the 1920s.

2007 will be a year when we learn whether Gingrich’s perceived shortcomings are enough to keep him out of the presidential sweepstakes. Gingrich is the conservative movement’s one great hope for 2008, and the GOP base will likely overlook any past indiscretions. The bigger challenge for Gingrich will be turning himself into a likeable enough figure to grab Middle America’s support.

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