MTP Transcript for Dec. 31

MR. RUSSERT: Certainly, the competition between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has generated the best T-shirt of this novice campaign, a picture of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and it says “Don’t tell Mama I’m for Obama.”

Kate O’Beirne, let me move to the Republicans. Here’s the Safire office poll. He has McCain, Romney, Giuliani, then Gingrich, Rice, Brownback and Hagel. He says that at the end of ‘07, John McCain will be ahead in those polls.

MS. O’BEIRNE: I think polls of likely Republican primary voters, by the end of the year, would probably put John McCain on top. You know, the—they’re, they’re not going to tune in like we will, have been chewing over it all year, and given that he’s run before, and the name recognition. And although there are reservations on the part of a lot of conservatives about John McCain, he has conservative support, too. I think John McCain will probably top the polls, which is not to say he’ll be the nominee.

MR. RUSSERT: Who will be?

MS. O’BEIRNE: I think there are vulnerabilities for John McCain owing to the antipathy of so many conservatives. Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts, could emerge as a viable conservative alternative to John McCain. We like governors. They tend to make it to the Oval Office a lot more often than senators do, for reasons we’re always reminded during these races. So there’s room for a conservative alternative to John McCain, I think.

MR. RUSSERT: E.J., how do you see ‘08 emerging?

MR. DIONNE: Well, on the Republican side, I see an opening for a dark horse, for all the reasons Kate talked about. So that somebody like Huckabee or even in a long-shot, Brownback, could sneak into this competition. Romney is a very appealing person, but he’s had a terrible time the last few weeks on all this flip-flopping over the gay marriage issue, which I think has really taken a toll on him.

On the Democratic side, you know, I feel like predicting John Edwards since no one but his wife would ever do that. Barack Obama is one of the most formidable political talents I’ve ever met. There are only three people where, in the last 20 years, where the moment I met them, long before they became public figures, I knew they were going far. The first was Newt Gingrich in ‘86, Bill Clinton in ‘87, Barack Obama in ‘97. He is really—I think he’s the real deal.

MR. RUSSERT: Michael Beschloss.

MR. BESCHLOSS: Well, coming from Illinois, you know, we’ve got two Illinois candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, so we’re doing well. But, you know, the one thing that occurs to me—I almost hate the idea that these polls matter this early. We’ve been talking about Jerry Ford this week. When Ford was nominated in the summer of ‘76 in Kansas City, that went all the way down to the convention. You had six months of a race between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. It showed us a lot about the two guys and also how effective they might or might not be in the fall. We don’t have that anymore. This is probably going to be decided in about two after weeks after Iowa in 2008. I sure wish we went back to at least something of the old system so we all had more time.

MR. SAFIRE: You’d break the rice bowls of everybody around this table.

MR. BESCHLOSS: I know.

MR. DIONNE: But Bill is right. Hillary Clinton has one of the most formidable operations built over a very long period of time and that cannot be discounted.

MR. RUSSERT: You have front-runner-itis? You think it’s McCain vs.

Clinton?

MR. SAFIRE: Yes, I think so. As of now. But time and chance happen to us all and two years is a long time and...

MR. RUSSERT: But we’ll know the nominees in 13 months.

MR. SAFIRE: Thirteen months is a long time.

MS. O’BEIRNE: Because he’s so talented and the fresh face is so appealing, although I disagree, I think the, the real credible first black candidate, although he didn’t run, was Colin Powell, given his, his qualifications vs. Barack Obama. He could, he could dent Hillary Clinton’s inevitability, which is a huge asset for her at the moment, that she’d be the nominee.

MR. SAFIRE: Yes.

MS. O’BEIRNE: And create an appetite for a new face. And if it winds up not being him because of reservations about his experience, John Edwards could benefit.

MR. RUSSERT: There was a big event at the White House a few weeks ago. One member of this roundtable was honored with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, and I would like to show that scene right now.

(Videotape, December 15, 2006):

PRES. GEORGE W. BUSH: He’s a voice of independence and principle. And American journalism is better for the contributions from William Safire. Congratulations.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT: Presidential Medal of Freedom. What a rare honor.

MR. SAFIRE: I was going to wear it today, but I thought that was...

MS. O’BEIRNE: Yeah, congratulations.

MR. SAFIRE: It came as a bolt from the blue. You, you don’t lobby for it. I certainly didn’t expect it. But you sit there in the White House next to people like Natan Sharansky, the great dissident and, and historians like David McCullough and Paul Johnson, and it was quite a moment. And you do get to bring your whole family. And it knocked me out, to tell you the truth.

MR. RUSSERT: Nothing better than that.

Before we go, how about a new year’s wish for our country and our world? E.J.

Dionne, start us off.

MR. DIONNE: I would wish, would wish that Bill be right and I be wrong on Iraq.

MR. RUSSERT: Hm.

MR. DIONNE: And that things sort of straighten out to some degree. I just think that’s a real long shot, and...

MR. RUSSERT: Kate?

MS. O’BEIRNE: We’re, we’re at war, although too few are bearing the burden of so many of us, so you have to think about the troops in the field, it seems to me, you know, entering the new year. And I would join E.J., I hope Bill’s right about our prospects in Iraq given the, given the sacrifice they’ve made.

MR. RUSSERT: Eugene Robinson?

MR. ROBINSON: Facing the reality in Iraq and not provoking a wider Mideast war.

MR. RUSSERT: Bill Safire?

MR. SAFIRE: Remembering the, the beauty of last night’s services and of Tuesday’s service, too, that reminds us that we can remember some great things about presidents and not just tear them down.

MR. RUSSERT: Michael Beschloss.

MR. BESCHLOSS: I’ll be less lofty. I’m a big Chicago Cubs fan, I’ve got two boys who are 12 and 10, they love the Nationals. We’re just hoping for something this year.

MR. RUSSERT: Hope springs eternal. Even I couldn’t do the Buffalo Bills, my guys.

But thank you all for an uplifting conversation. Happy new year, everybody.

MS. O’BEIRNE: Happy new year.

MR. ROBINSON: Happy new year.

MR. BESCHLOSS: Happy new year.

MR. DIONNE: Happy new year.

MR. SAFIRE: Happy new year.

MR. RUSSERT: And we’ll be right back.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: That’s all for today. We’ll be back next week. If it’s Sunday, it’s MEET THE PRESS. Happy new year, everybody.

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