MTP Transcript for Dec. 31

MR. RUSSERT: That debate will play out for years to come, but today we do remember the noble life of Gerald R. Ford, the 38^th president.

Let me turn to the topic at hand. Gene Robinson, the biggest story in ‘06 was?

MR. EUGENE ROBINSON: The biggest story in ‘06 was the, the, the midterm election, I guess, the, the big switch. I’m getting two stories in here, actually.

MR. RUSSERT: Good.

MR. ROBINSON: Because it was because of Iraq and, and I think the public’s turn against the war in Iraq, against the president’s policy and the public’s stamping of its feet and, and demanding a new policy and, and, and an exit from Iraq. I think that was the big story.

MR. RUSSERT: Kate O’Beirne?

MS. KATE O’BEIRNE: I would agree. Iraq’s the big story, just as it is the central issue in this president’s presidency. I can’t help thinking he will be very happy to see the end of 2006. Might even stay up past 9:00 tonight to welcome in 2007. Just a really terrible year, beginning with the Dubai port debacle early in the year. I mean, he got Justice Alito on the court. That, of course, was a win. But boy, the year went downhill after that, and I think Iraq was the major story, and the elections, of course, where the central question was Iraq.

MR. RUSSERT: You subscribe to the Robinson theory that it was the midterm elections driven by Iraq?

MR. E.J. DIONNE: Yes. It was Iraq. Also by corruption stories in the House of Representatives. You can’t put aside the problems that caused the Republicans. I think President Bush is going to stay awake just to make sure it becomes 2007. And I think this—I think this election was really that conservative crackup that people have been talking about for 20 years, and it never quite materializes, Kate probably is sure that it won’t materialize again, but I really think the whole approach of the—you know, the Reagan approach, but in particular the approach of the Republican revolution in Congress was overturned. And I think you’re going to see a lot of interesting turmoil and debate inside the Republican Party, both in their presidential campaign and in Congress about whether you need to turn a page and find, as Bill Safire once wrote, I believe, for Richard Nixon, “The drive—or the lift of a driving dream.” They need a new driving dream to go forward.

MR. RUSSERT: Professor Beschloss, so we have a boiling pot here and we put a little bit of Iraq, a little bit of corruption, a little bit of a conservative crackup, according to Mr. Dionne. We had a midterm election where the Democrats took control. Was that the story of ‘06?

MR. BESCHLOSS: I think it was and it’s stemming from what happened in Iraq. You know, this was the year that most Americans really turned and said, “We think we’re losing in Iraq. We think this was the wrong thing.” And you know, as an historian, Tim, you know, I write history books and one reason I do is that I have this idea that if our leaders and our people have made big mistakes in history, we learn from those and we don’t repeat them. And, you know, I never thought that we’d repeat some of the biggest lessons of Vietnam starting with you have a big debate before you get into a war like this, make sure that everyone knows this war may drag on and they’re signed on at the beginning. And one more just to name another, the Powell Doctrine, which came out of Vietnam. Colin Powell’s idea that if you go into war, you do it with overwhelming force to make sure you’d win. I wouldn’t have thought that we wouldn’t have done that again.

MR. RUSSERT: Mr. Safire.

MR. SAFIRE: The Iraq story is obviously the big story of the year. And I look at the Trumanesque quality in the White House now. You have a president who is facing all this bad news coming out of Iraq and the casualties and the brink of civil war. And he’s hanging in there and he’s not admitting defeat, he’s not embracing defeatism. And he’s coming up with another approach, and who knows, he may turn it around.

MS. O’BEIRNE: In 2004, being steadfast like that served him well. The contrast was John Kerry is a flip-flopper and George Bush is steadfast. But by 2006, that was no longer an asset. What looked—what they considered steadfast, I think, looked stubborn and out of touch. And they’re only post-election making up for that perception, I’m afraid.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me talk about Iraq and we’re going to talk about Mr. Safire’s office pool, the various options you lay out. But first, because this is a program of accountability, let me—Bill—bring Bill Safire back, January 2^nd, 2005. Two years ago, his prediction about Iraq. Let’s read.

“I think we’re going to win in Iraq. I think by the end of next year,” that would be the end of ‘06, “we’ll have begun to withdraw our forces. We won’t have them out, but we’ll have begun to withdraw. ... I don’t see a long civil war there.”

How do you plead?

MR. SAFIRE: Optimistic, and frankly, that was as well-sourced a prediction as I’ve ever had.

MR. ROBINSON: That was the problem.

MR. BESCHLOSS: They know things that we don’t know, right, Bill?

MR. SAFIRE: But one of these days I’m going to be right.

MR. RUSSERT: Well, here are the questions that you posed...

MR. DIONNE: He’s steadfast.

MR. RUSSERT: Yeah. Here’s the Safire office pool, and we’re all going to take it.

“The level of American troops in Iraq at year’s end”—that’s at 2007, end of this, next year, 2007, A: over 100,000, down from 160; under 100,000 from today’s unsurged 140; under 80, with announced timetable for downsizing in ‘08 to 40 to secure Iraqi Kurdistan.”

Mr. Safire, you picked A, over 100,000.

MR. SAFIRE: I think what we’ll have is surging, the surge will be there. And the Democrats will go along with the surge, provided that it can be shown to have a mission in mind, and has some support from the Iraqis. Even Hillary Clinton, when she said, “I’m against the surge unless it has some other mission in mind.”

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