Fifty lessons for the political soul

ON THE TRAIL

By Chuck Todd

Political Director

updated 3:44 p.m. ET Dec. 20, 2006

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Trying to come up with a final column of the year to sum everything up is never easy. Sometimes, I've gone the "awards" route, and in other years, I've looked to the future. But this year, I thought I'd experiment with a tribute of sorts to Paul Simon's "50 Ways to Leave Your Lover" with the twist, "50 ways I learned from 2006."

Attention media elitists: Alabama may be home to former state Supreme Court judge Roy Moore, but that doesn't mean state Republicans bring God with them to the voting booth.

Alaska wanted change, but not the past -- former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles. It wanted the future -- Republican Gov.-elect Sarah Palin. A lesson for legacies running in '08?

Although Arizona is filled with swing voters, they won't buy into a candidate who says he's "independent" but whose previous job was state party chair.

Democrats should still believe in a place called Hope, because Arkansas is still bluer than the rest of the South.

It's a pretty simple formula for statewide success in California: The moderate Democratic general-election nominee will always triumph. Congrats to Arnold Shriver.

Democrats ought not get cocky in Colorado. Their recent success has everything to do with the party nominating more centrist candidates.

Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I/D) victory wasn't so surprising. In the end, he became an outsider -- and in Connecticut, just like everywhere else, voters deemed the outsider more interesting.

To paraphrase the great ?90s philosopher Wayne Campbell, "Hi, this column is now stuck in Delaware." Sorry, I couldn't find much wisdom in Beau Biden's (D) victory in the attorney general's race.

When will Democrats ever learn re: Florida? By writing it off in '06, they've only made winning the state in '08 close to impossible.

Watch out, South Carolina. Georgia may very well be the reddest state in the South by the end of '08.

Imagine if outgoing Rep. Ed Case (D) had run for the Senate as an independent? Hawaii general election voters probably would have sent Daniel Akaka (D) into retirement.

Republicans looking to figure out their libertarian issues ought to study Idaho before it's too late even there.

Sometimes a party's problem in a state is self-fulfilling. The GOP's troubles in Illinois aren't nearly as bad as the recent results indicate -- the party just needs to purge itself of its current elected leaders.

Although Indiana may have lost a favorite son in the presidential race with Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) decision, GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels had better hope he didn't gain a new, tough, potential foe.

As Republican pollster Glen Bolger told us months ago, when Republicans have a cold nationally, Iowa Republicans usually have the flu.

What's changed more: Kansas' ideology or the Republican Party's?

What if it isn't just the grass that's blue in Kentucky?

We'll know in 10 months just how many Democrats Louisiana lost.

If outgoing Sen. Linc "My Name Is Gold" Chafee (R) couldn't survive in Rhode Island, how is someone like Sen. Susan Collins (R) supposed to in Maine?

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is proof positive that a Democrat literally has to run a campaign into the ground in Maryland to lose.

The two biggest signs that this country has moved beyond race: Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) surprising 48 percent in his Senate race and incoming Bay State Gov. Deval Patrick's (D) ability to carry South Boston. What Jim Rice wouldn't give to wear a Red Sox uniform in this century's Massachusetts.

A state Democrats haven't lost since '88 will be more in play than ever before in '08: Michigan.

Since outgoing Rep. Mark Kennedy's showing was the worst for a Senate-seeking Republican in Minnesota in a half-century, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman might want to see if he still has Democratic credentials stashed away in storage somewhere.

Not only can I spell Mississippi without any eyes, but I can still spell it without any "D"s.

I've been a believer that Missouri was on its way to permanent red status, but given the current governor's '08 vulnerabilities and the effective populist message incoming Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) sold, the state showed me it's still the country's bellwether.

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