New nuclear power ‘wave’ — or just a ripple?

Probe of energy task force promised
While there is little expectation that the Democratic-controlled Congress will seek to substantially roll back provisions of the energy bill, which was approved by an overwhelming majority in both houses, skeptics say some elements of the onrushing "nuclear renaissance" could face new scrutiny. In particular, the new chairman of the House Energy Committee, Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., has vowed to investigate the Cheney energy task force, saying it was "carefully cooked to provide only participation by oil companies and energy companies." Dingell himself has been a favorite recipient of campaign contributions from the nuclear power industry over the years.

Dr. Edwin Lyman of the Union of Concerned Scientists and other critics say the industry now faces the challenge of proving its economic argument. The only way to do that, he said, is by demonstrating that the resurgence will result in the construction of more than “a small number of reactors, exactly the number that receive subsidies under the Energy Policy Act.”

But Adrian Heymer, NEI’s senior director for new plant deployment, said the extent of the rebound will soon be clear; applications to build a majority of the 30-plus new nuclear reactors are expected by year's end.

He also brushed aside complaints that the streamlined NRC review process for the new license applications shuts out important opportunities for public comment and participation.

“There’s more opportunity for public involvement, a lot more information is available earlier to the public,” he said. Besides, he added, there may be little opposition to some of the plants, slated to be built on existing nuclear sites and actively sought by community leaders who look favorably on the economic benefits of large construction projects and the permanent jobs the plants will bring.

Don’t count on it, countered Gunter. “The anti-nuclear movement has been seasoned; we’re a lot more sophisticated and far more educated now as to the hazards and folly of nuclear power," he said. "None of the concerns that brought about the anti-nuclear movement in the 1970s have disappeared. They’ve only been magnified. We have no better clue as to how to manage nuclear waste now than we did in 1975.”

Waste disposal remains key issue
All parties agree that any large-scale nuclear renaissance will depend on answering the thorny political and technical questions surrounding the handling of spent fuel. The industry and administration’s current bid to get the Yucca Mountain repository in Nevada licensed are seen as dead by many observers because the new Senate majority leader, Democrat Harry Reid of Nevada, has always firmly opposed the facility.

But new initiatives are afoot to break the Yucca deadlock. And given long lead times for licensing and construction, “that doesn’t have to happen next year or even in the next Congress,” said Scott Peterson, another NEI spokesman.

Still the prediction that one or more new nuclear reactors will be operating “early in the next decade,” as envisioned by the Bush administration, remains open to question. And some experts are betting against the house.

Matthew Bunn, a senior researcher on nuclear issues at Harvard and a supporter of nuclear power, doubts it. Certainly, he said, “The fast pace of growth just ain’t going to happen for some number of years.”

He recalls a bet he made with a friend a couple years back that work would not begin on a single new nuclear power plant in the United States within 10 years.

"We’re now down to eight years, so I’m a little more nervous, but I still think I’ll win,” he said.

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