What do the Globes mean for Oscar? Not much

The Golden Globes are reminiscent of the political party conventions held every four years.

Both Democrats and Republicans, trying to grab as many votes as possible, do their best to be inclusive. The message is always the same: We’re a big tent … everybody’s welcome.

Such is the same for the movie portion of the Globes, which this year acknowledged big studio movies, indies, comedies, dramas, foreign films, Americans, Brits, Australians, A-list talent, unrecognized thespians and seemingly everything else in between.

And what it especially liked was two particular individuals: Leonardo DiCaprio and Clint Eastwood. The former impressing members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in two Warner Bros. films: “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond.” Eastwood, another Warner Bros. icon, is competing against himself by directing both “Flags of Our Fathers” and its companion piece, the Japanese perspective “Letters From Iwo Jima.”

Does that mean that DiCaprio and Eastwood are locks to win their respective categories come Oscar time? Absolutely not. The Globes might like to advertise itself as the precursor to the Oscars but in reality, the 5,500 or so members of the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences are a completely disparate group than the approximately 95 members of the HFPA.

They don’t often think in unison or, most importantly, vote the same way. Look no farther than last year. “Crash,” which went on to win the Oscar for best picture, wasn’t even nominated for a Globe. Same for “Munich” and “Capote.” Only “Brokeback Mountain” and “Good Night, and Good Luck” made the final five for both groups.

Putting the ‘foreign’ in HFPA
There are several reasons why the lists are often different. First, the voting deadline for Globes members is much earlier. They must hand in their ballots in early December while Oscar voters have until Jan. 13, meaning Academy members have more time to view and absorb the huge influx of films that are vying for awards consideration that aren’t screened until late November or early December.

Also, members of the HFPA are, for the most part, journalists born in different countries around the world but live in Los Angeles and cover the entertainment business for their home newspapers and magazines. Their view of the films and television shows they write about can be skewed by their nationalities and what’s familiar (or not) to them.

For example, on the TV side, the Globes have historically voted for new programs that have gotten critical support. Normally, that would’ve meant NBC’s “Friday Night Lights” had a nomination coming. But football is barely played outside the States and despite the critics’ high praise, the show didn’t make a dent because the HFPA can’t relate to Americans’ huge appetite for the sport.

Bringing that analogy back to the movie side, the same reasoning could be made for the exclusion of two very specific U.S.-themed films: “World Trade Center” and “United 93,” both of which dealt with the trauma of Sept. 11.

There’s no way to make the connection that those movies didn’t get any love from the HFPA because its members couldn’t relate to the subject matter — and to try would be pure folly. It should be noted, however, that “United 93” has made several top 10 lists of the year, including the best picture from the New York Film Critics, and Paul Greengrass was named best director of the year by the Los Angeles Film Critics.

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