What if Republicans keep the Senate?

In the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., who would take over as chairman, has already scheduled a series of hearings into the war modeled on the hearings conducted by Sen. J. William Fulbright, D-Ark., during the Vietnam War.

Biden, who is gearing up to run for president in 2008, has clashed repeatedly with the Bush administration over its handling of the war, especially over its reluctance to turn over documents requested by the committee’s Democratic minority. He is also a strong supporter of the United Nations, putting him sharply at odds with the administration’s national security team.

Under the Republicans, Richard Lugar of Indiana would continue to lead the committee. Lugar is a widely admired moderate who has worked well with Biden in the past, but he is also a party loyalist and has consistently bowed to the wishes of the conservative majority on the current panel. In this scenario, the best Democrats could hope for would be preservation of a frustrating status quo.

Democrats would likely do best under the Republicans in the Armed Services Committee, where John McCain, R-Ariz., as the new ranking Republican, would become chairman. As early as 2004, McCain was agreeing with top Democrats that planning for the war was inadequate, and the Armed Services chairmanship would give his contrariness an even higher profile as he pursues the White House.

However, McCain is unlikely to push nearly as hard as would Carl Levin, D-Mich., who will become chairman under the current lineup. Levin has called for steps to withdraw U.S. troops and has said he would seek to issue subpoenas for documents to review the war. Levin has also said the Pentagon has mismanaged the war financially as well as militarily, and he has promised to strongly ramp up oversight of Pentagon spending.

Domestic flashpoints of conflict
Beyond Iraq, aggressive Democratic campaigns on a variety of domestic issues could also be stalled if Johnson must leave the Senate.

Bush is just one appointment away from tilting the Supreme Court to a conservative majority, but Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who is in line to lead the Judiciary Committee, has been a strongly liberal voice on judicial appointments. In a previous term as chairman, in 2001 and 2002, Leahy blocked the appointments of John Roberts, now the chief justice, and 11 other nominees to federal appeals courts.

Under the Republicans, the gavel would stay in the hands of Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, a moderate Republican whose bipartisan tendencies and complaints about executive overreaching have frequently been overrun by the panel's conservative majority.

Chris Dodd, D-Conn., who is in line to head the Banking Committee, has promised to shift the focus of regulation to consumer and investor protection. He has said he wants to assert committee oversight of investment funds, examine whether to roll back limits on the rights of individuals to sue companies and their boards, and impose new controls on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which control half of the nation's residential mortgage market.

By contrast, Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who would remain chairman under Republican control, has promoted and passed legislation to repeal business regulations he considers burdensome.

But the sharpest shift of all would come on the Environment and Public Works Committee, where regulation of environmental programs would see a 180-degree turnabout with liberal Democrat Barbara Boxer of California in line to be chairwoman.

Boxer, who plans quick hearings on global warming and regulation of toxic materials, would succeed Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, an ornery contrarian closely allied with energy interests who has called global warming a hoax created by Hollywood and the news media.

Inhofe would remain chairman under the Republicans — assuming he can survive challenges from fellow Republicans exasperated by the unwelcome publicity he often draws. At least two members of his own party are campaigning to supplant him as senior Republican on the committee.

NBC’s Tim Russert and Chip Reid, MSNBC-TV’s David Shuster and NBC affiliate KDLT-TV contributed to this report.

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