What if Republicans keep the Senate?

The illness of Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., highlights the fragile hold Democrats have on power in the Senate, raising the prospect that several of their most cherished goals could be out of reach barely a month after party leaders thought they were within grasp.

Johnson was in critical condition at George Washington University Hospital in the capital Thursday after he underwent successful surgery to relieve bleeding on the brain caused by a congenital malformation, doctors said.

Washington figures were careful to stress publicly that they were concerned only with Johnson’s well-being, but behind the scenes, intense discussions were under way about what would happen if Johnson were unable to remain in the Senate.

Johnson could stay in office as long as he remains alive, even if he were incapacitated. But if he were to die or to resign, South Dakota state law gives Gov. Michael Rounds, a Republican, the authority to appoint a replacement for the rest of Johnson’s term, which ends in January 2009.

S.D. governor would be kingmaker
With the Senate divided 51-49 in favor of the Democrats, Rounds could tip the balance of power in his party’s favor by appointing a Republican. In a Senate tied 50-50, the vice president — in this case, Republican Dick Cheney — would have the deciding vote.

That would mean a complete reversal of Democratic plans to take power. Instead of Harry Reid of Nevada, Mitch McConnell, a conservative from Kentucky known for his effective partisan infighting, would become majority leader, and Republicans would remain chairmen of all committees. Such a scenario could effectively quash Democratic hopes of taking on the Bush administration on a variety of fronts.

Most broadly, a Republican Senate could insulate President Bush from any number of potentially embarrassing dilemmas. By defeating liberal-tinged measures sent up by the newly Democratic House, or by watering them down in committees, they could protect Bush from the prospect of vetoing Democratic reform bills to boost oversight of the Pentagon and government spending that are popular with many voters.

For Senate Democrats, the disappointment would be keenly felt on nearly a half-dozen major issues. Most notable is the war in Iraq, over which the new Democratic chairmen of at least three major committees have promised hearings.

But Senate Democrats were also looking forward to preserving the Supreme Court from tilting to a conservative majority, overturning what they see as unacceptable encroachments on civil liberties and criminal proceedings, and overhauling regulations on Pentagon spending, consumer affairs, banking and the environment.

Pullback on Iraq advocacy
The winds of Iraq would shift strongly in the Select Committee on Intelligence, where Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV, D-W.Va., is in line to become chairman.

Rockefeller has promised a series of investigations into the White House’s claims that Iraq sought uranium from Niger, a major piece of the administration’s case for war. He has also said he intends to take on the administration’s program of secret, warrantless surveillance of terrorism suspects and CIA interrogation techniques that critics characterize as abusive.

If the Republicans remain in power, Sen. Christopher Bond, R-Mo., would lead the panel. In sharp contrast with Rockefeller, Bond was among Bush’s most forceful defenders in the Senate, backing the surveillance program and joining only eight other senators in voting against a measure to ban the use of torture by U.S. interrogators overseas.

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