If the NCAA ran our presidential elections

ON THE TRAIL

By Chuck Todd

Political Director

updated 9:36 p.m. ET Dec. 8, 2006

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Like any college football fan, my disgust for the Bowl Championship Series system, which decides the sport's mythical national champion, knows no bounds. And since its December (translation: slow news season), what better time to combine two of my passions in life -- politics and college football -- into one column?

Fortunately, unlike college football, the parties' nomination processes still include some playoffs (the primaries) but the way the field winnows prior to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries too closely resembles the backward methods the BCS uses when anointing two teams to play for the national title. So let's identify some of the same factors to narrow down the presidential field that sports writers and football coaches use to determine the national title contenders.

Strength of schedule: In the college football world, this factor is applied sporadically, depending upon pedigree. If the team is new, like Rutgers (or, say, California GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter), then suddenly schedule strength becomes the ultimate judgment about its place in college football. But if it's Notre Dame (or Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.), the lack of tough opponents (Army or Obama's '04 Senate opponent, Republican Alan Keyes) just isn't given the same weight by the powers that be.

Now, let's look at the candidates in the race just by the strength of schedule (i.e., the races they've run in the past and whether that prepares them for the tough task of the general). Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) has run many more races (or played a lot more games) than his would-be opponents, but only one of those races was tough (the 2000 GOP primary, where he fell to then-Texas Gov. George Bush). New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) has helped coach a slew of tough campaigns but only participated in one that was against second-tier competition. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has faced the toughest press corps in the country, but he's only run against second-tier candidates (or teams). Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has only won one race ever. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' (D) lone campaign victory was against an incumbent in a supposedly tough year for Democrats. Obama has lost a race (Bobby Rush) that historians will scratch their heads about if he ever does become president. Ironically, on the schedule (or previous campaign front), it's the second-tier candidates who have faced the tougher challenges, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.; Govs. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., and Bill Richardson, D-N.M.; and Sens. Joseph Biden, D-Del., Sam Brownback, R-Kan., John Kerry, D-Mass., Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and Evan Bayh, D-Ind.

Interactive Analyzing the 2008 presidential field

So who gets the top spots for schedule strength? Winning over a period of time should count for something (and losing only to a future president should, too), which means McCain gets the top slot on the GOP side. Gingrich comes in a close second since he built his program -- or career -- from nothing. On the Democratic side, Kerry and Bayh deserve the Nos. 1 and 2 slots, respectively, for facing the toughest competition over the longest period of time.

Media polls: Just like in college football, early polling on the presidential race is, more than anything, a popularity contest. And just like college football, early stumbles don't cost front-runners as much as they do lower ranked teams, or candidates. Consequently, media polls show that the two front-runners on both sides are Clinton and Obama for the Democrats and Giuliani and McCain for the Republicans. Clinton's lead on the Democratic side is much clearer in the polls than Giuliani's, which seems to fluctuate.

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