Hezbollah gambles in quest for dominance

But the protests underway mark a far less certain tactic for Hezbollah than past decisions to participate in parliament or the cabinet. The stakes are higher — bringing down the government — and the outcome for a group that prides itself on deliberation, caution and prudence is by no means certain. The implications for its Shiite constituency are similarly ambiguous. A debate remains in Lebanon over what precisely Hezbollah wants and how much the rest of Lebanon is willing to give.

"They sort of painted themselves in a corner, and it's very difficult to back out now," said Timur Goksel, a former spokesman and adviser to the U.N. peacekeeping force here. That strategy entailed risk in Lebanon's notoriously mercurial, even cynical politics, he said. "At the moment, they are spending a lot of the capital they made out of this summer's war. Getting involved in local politics can erode the party's popularity very quickly."

In some ways, he added, "fighting Israel is much easier."

In the protests themselves, canvas tents sprawling across downtown during the day, engulfed by crowds at night, Hezbollah has played down any sectarian ambitions. Rather, it has promoted the protests as a campaign for "national unity." "One, united," banners read at the protest and on the movement's television station, al-Manar. On a recent night, a Hezbollah guard discouraged a couple from bringing a Hezbollah banner to the stage. "Please, only Lebanese flags tonight," he said.

Another dominant theme is resistance to American influence in Lebanon. That message appeals to its constituency, bitter over U.S. support for Israel in this summer's war, and underlines the almost existential threat that Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, perceives in a government too closely allied with the United States and its ambitions in the region.

"Hezbollah was extremely anxious where the country was heading. It seemed to be heading straight into the U.S. orbit. It was turning into a satellite state," said Saad-Ghorayeb, the analyst. "If they back down now, they will have effectively given up on Lebanon. That would mean Lebanon falls to their enemy, the United States and Israel."

Banners condemn Jeffrey D. Feltman, the U.S. ambassador in Lebanon, who is often a target of Nasrallah's speeches. "The government of Feltman," one slogan reads, "We'll bring it down." A homemade billboard was set up near Hussein Ismail, a 15-year-old protester from the southern town of Kafra. Under a picture of Siniora and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, it read, "Congratulations to the bride and groom." Another pictured the two shaking hands. "Peace with the enemies," it read.

"This is a struggle with a government that is not Lebanese but rather American," he said. "We want a Lebanese government that doesn't take its decisions from the Americans and the Zionists."

Behind Ismail was another poster of Nasrallah. "He promised a victory, and a victory is coming, just like he said."

Special correspondents Alia Ibrahim and Lynn Maalouf contributed to this report.

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