2008 GOP field disappoints some conservatives

No longer searching for a Bush clone
Democrats next year will control both chambers of Congress. President Bush, who successfully won a second term two years ago, is battling the lame duck label and approval ratings that are stuck below 40 percent. And perhaps most importantly, one prominent conservative Republican who was once seen as possible front-runner -- Sen. George Allen, R-Va. -- lost his bid for re-election.

The GOP's struggles over the past two years arguably also doomed the candidacy of another conservative Republican, Bill Frist, who announced last week that he isn't running for president.

"With the Republicans' loss of the House and the Senate, and with the unpopularity of President Bush, I think that Republicans will look for someone who doesn't remind voters of George Bush," observes Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University.

And Black believes that could possibly strengthen the GOP's hand in the general election. "They need a candidate who can appeal not only to Republicans, but also independents," he says. "That's where Democrats really cleaned up [in 2006] -- with independents."

But would such a candidate alienate social conservatives, to the point where they wouldn't show up to vote in the general election? For Weyrich of the Free Congress Foundation, it depends on the Democratic candidate. "If it's Hillary, they will swallow hard for anyone," he says, referring to Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. "If not, I think there will be a lot of hand-sitting."

Other Republicans caution, however, that it's too early to predict how conservatives will eventually view Giuliani, McCain, and Romney. Bill Dal Col, a GOP political consultant who ran Steve Forbes' presidential campaign in 2000, says that the candidate-selection process is evolving, and that it's quite likely Republicans will discover someone like Giuliani is more conservative than he appears on paper.

The battle for the conservative mantle
And all three front-runners realize that they will have to be palatable -- in at least some way -- to the right to get their party's nomination. "Remember, you can't get to the big dance unless you appeal to economic conservatives and social conservatives," says Republican Scott Reed, who served as Bob Dole's presidential campaign manager in 1996. In fact, Reed believes that the biggest story of 2007 could be the candidates' battle for the conservative mantle.

Of course, it's possible that a more conservative Republican -- like U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., outgoing Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, or maybe even former Speaker Newt Gingrich -- could emerge in the GOP field. Indeed, Weyrich says that some social conservatives are exploring the idea of rallying behind one of these candidates, which could elevate that person's chances.

Brownback filed paperwork on Monday to form a presidential exploratory committee. "I have decided, after much prayerful consideration, to consider a bid for the Republican nomination for the presidency," he said in a statement. "There is a real need in our country to rebuild the family and renew our culture."

But Dal Col, Steve Forbes' former campaign manager, says one of Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will most likely win the nomination. "The reality is the front-runners essentially remain the front-runners. When the dust settles, it will probably be these three names out in front."

And if that's the case, you can expect social conservatives to spend much of 2007 vetting the favorites. "There's a lot at stake," says Yoest of the Family Research Council, "and that's why we won't be messing around when looking at people's records."

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

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