GOP faces struggle in 2008 Senate races

New Hampshire: A change since 2002  
Like Minnesota, New Hampshire was the scene of Republican devastation on Election Day.

The GOP lost control of both houses of the state legislature and lost both of the state’s two House members.

Democratic Gov. John Lynch got three-quarters of the vote, unheard in a New Hampshire election.

Things are quite different from 2002, when Republican Sen. John Sununu defeated Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.

Political scientist Dante Scala who teaches at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H. said, “In the 2002 election, both bases — the Republican base voters and the Democratic base — came out equally for Shaheen and Sununu. She had to get large percentage of independents to win. Now the gap between the Republican base and the Democratic base is closed: the Republican base is no longer much larger than the Democratic base.”

In Scala’s view, the Republicans in New Hampshire have been in a deteriorating condition since 2002. Independent voters in New Hampshire are finding the Democratic candidates more to their liking. According to exit poll interviews in the 2004 election Kerry got 56 percent of New Hampshire voters who identified themselves as independents, while Bush got 42 percent of them.

“As a senator Sununu has cast some votes that are fairly libertarian,” Scala said, pointing to his opposition to renewal of the Patriot Act. “It remains to be seen whether that will be enough.”

Colorado: Will Allard retire?
Two-term incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard is a folksy former veterinarian. Democrats have under-estimated him in the past and may do so again.

But Colorado, like Minnesota and New Hampshire, is trending Democratic. The Democrats won both this year’s governor’s race and an open House seat; they also gained seats in the state legislature.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli predicts that Allard, who said he'd serve only two terms, will not run for another term, even though “he’ll get an enormous amount of pressure” to do so from GOP leaders.

“He hasn’t raised a lot of money and he is just not acting like a candidate for re-election,” Ciruli said. As of the beginning of October, Allard had only $120,507 in cash, a pittance for a Senate candidate.

In contrast, likely Democratic candidate Rep. Mark Udall had a cash reserve of more than $1.3 million for his House race. Assuming he has most of that money left, Udall can transfer all of the remaining cash to his Senate campaign fund. Udall cruised to re-election to his House seat, with 67 percent of the vote.

If Allard does retire, a possible contender for his seat would be Republican Gov. Bill Owens who is term-limited and is leaving office.

But Owens has quarreled with GOP conservatives over a spending limit and over the immigration issue. So an Owens candidacy is no sure thing.

A true-blue GOP conservative who might run if Allard bows out is Rep. Tom Tancredo, the House’s most prominent opponent of illegal immigration.

“We like our crowded Republican primaries in Colorado,” said Colorado-based GOP strategist Patrick Davis. “The more candidates in the race, the sharper the elbows that get thrown.”

On Democratic-trending states such as Colorado hinge the Republicans’ chances of getting back their Senate majority any time soon. At this point there seem to be ample reasons for cautious pessimism among Republicans.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

Fineman: McCain's last chance What I learned at ‘town hall’ events   McCain pins hopes on high-stakes debate Todd: Debate make or break for McCain McCain tied to Iran-Contra group Walter: Can McCain get his groove back? NYT: Campaigns shift to attack mode Cook: Time running short for GOP Calif. gay marriage ban draws big money Newsweek: McCain's "dishonorable" Obama attack   Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: