MTP Transcript for Nov. 25

MR. RUSSERT: Congressman Skelton, you certainly have evolved in your thinking on the war in Iraq. You supported it. Back in December of ‘06, about a year ago, I want to read something—‘05--let me read something that you said. Skelton “rejected calls by some Democratic Party leaders for a quick withdrawal from Iraq.

“The United States has no choice but to succeed in Iraq ... which will require a ‘more responsible’ plan than a pullout based on any kind of time frame, which he called ‘counterproductive.’

“‘If we should pull out prematurely or allow there to be a unsuccessful conclusion, Iraq could become a snake pit for terrorists ... Further than that, it would also lead to the possibility of nearby countries being made unstable.’” You now say it’s mission: impossible. Your thinking has changed, hasn’t it?

REP. SKELTON: It has. The situation has changed. Let me go back to what General Downing was saying. There are three types of fighters over there.  You have your insurgents, mostly Sunni type, former Baathist type. Helping them you have the foreign fighters, part of which are the al-Qaeda. Then on top of that, overlaying all of this, is the sectarian violence that you have.  And—which we didn’t have some time ago. And consequently it, it is a, a cauldron that’s very difficult to understand.

What is important to remember—and I pointed this out to the president in two letters prior to us going in there, the first on September the 4^th, 2002; the next one, March the 18^th, 2003: Beware of the aftermath. Beware of chaos after the initial military victory, because number one, it’s the Middle East; number two, because they have a tribal structure mentality and that, of course, is coming to the fore right now. Not just the insurgents, not just the old Sunnis and the Shiites, but you have all of them fighting each other.  It’s a cauldron that’s very, very difficult to understand.

The American people spoke in the election just recently, and it’s very interesting to note not just that we have a new secretary of defense coming in, but it’s very interesting to note besides the Baker-Hamilton Commission, which I commend for their work, but you have a new study group within the White House, you have a new study group over in the Pentagon headed by General Peter Pace, as, as to the way ahead in Iraq. And...

MR. RUSSERT: A lot, a lot of study groups. Let me ask you a fundamental question I think that most American people are curious about. In your professional estimation, how many troops will we have in Iraq a year from now?

REP. SKELTON: Well, I hope it’s far less than what we have today. I would hope we could stand up their brigades, their battalions and that they would be effective. And the way to do this is for us to train them better, to have advisers that understand. And I think at Fort Riley, Kansas, they’re training our people to do that. We’ve had the wrong types in many instances.

MR. RUSSERT: But if the Iraqis aren’t capable of that and they don’t stand up...

REP. SKELTON: Well...

MR. RUSSERT: ...and they don’t step up, what happens?

REP. SKELTON: It’s up to the Iraqis to form their own future. We can’t do it for them and it cannot be done militarily. They’re going to have to—at the end of the day, perform their own security, and they’re also going to have to put their political thoughts together in their government.

MR. RUSSERT: General McCaffrey, how many troops at—one year from now?

GEN. McCAFFREY: We’ll get down to 10 brigades. But let me, let me...

MR. RUSSERT: Which is, which is how many?

GEN. McCAFFREY: Well, probably the whole package would be 60,000, 70,000 max, because I don’t think we can sustain much more. We got to fix the U.S.  Army and Marine Corps. It’s probably a $61 billion job.

But let me add to Congressman Skelton’s notion, which I basically agree with.  We have to equip the Iraqis to sustain a major internal battle to protect their own government. Thirty light trucks, light, small arms. These people need armored vehicles. They need an air force. They need a helicopter force.  We simply have to pay the price to allow ourselves to withdraw.

MR. RUSSERT: General Downing, do you think we’ll be down to 60,000 troops by the end of next year?

GEN. DOWNING: Tim, for two years I’ve been making this prediction and every time I knock it down by 50,000 and it either doesn’t go down or, or, or even goes up. I think we’re reaching a point right now where the Iraqis are going to have to produce or America is going to start a wholesale withdrawal from Iraq. I hope we’re patient because I think the program we have in place now—I, I think what we’re doing right now, despite all these bells and whistles that we’re hearing from, from, from these different commissions and, and groups, basically has it right. The advisory effort is absolutely crucial. The Iraqis are absolutely crucial. We, we, we must continue with the reconstruction efforts as we can. Maliki must, however, make the right kind of political decisions. If that happens, we’re going to be able to, to, to withdraw in a, in a very systematic and probably a very, very smart manner.  If this does not happen, then we’ve got to figure a way, Tim, to cut our losses and, and do this thing smart. Because we cannot be perceived as walking out of Iraq with our tails between our legs. Osama bin Laden, Ayman Zawahiri, their number two, they’ve been saying for over a year now that the Americans are going to cut and run, they’re going to leave.

Whether we like it or not, Iraq has become a central campaign in the global war on terrorism. That was not our intent back in 2003, but Iraq and Afghanistan right now are central fronts. The entire Islamic world, the entire world, are going to watch those two things to see how we do it. If we are going to have to get out, if the Iraqis can’t do it, we’ve got to do it in a smart way. But what we don’t want to do, Tim, and, and, and, you know, my congressmen here, don’t let us go out of this thing the way we did it in Vietnam. Let’s not sell these people down the river the way we did the, the, the South Vietnamese. Let’s do this smart.

MR. RUSSERT: To be continued. General Wayne Downing, General Barry McCaffrey, Congressman Duncan Hunter, Congressman Ike Skelton, thanks very much. We’ll be right back.

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