Chuck Todd: Congress gets a case of the blues

Final thoughts
Forget "red" and "blue." The country is basically divided into four voting blocs: the Democratic Northeast, the Republican South, the populist Midwest and the libertarian West. Democrats probably have a decent grip on those populist Midwest voters for a while (at least until the area transforms completely into a new economy). As for the libertarian West (home of the first state -- Arizona -- to reject a gay marriage ban), this is a region that is more up for grabs than it should be. And it's because the Republican Party has grown more religious and more pro-government which turns off these "leave me alone," small-government libertarian Republicans.

As for '08: Tuesday was a good night for John McCain and John Edwards. McCain's a "winner" because if the GOP realizes that its biggest impediment to winning elections is wooing back independents, then McCain's the natural heir for '08. Plus, the West is truly in play as a battleground region, making McCain more valuable to his party. As for Edwards, there were a lot of new Democrats elected to the House and Senate espousing his views on trade and the war. These folks aren't part of the Democratic Leadership Council. Barack Obama can also call himself a winner since he stumped for more Dem candidates than any other '08 prospect not named John Kerry. BTW, Kerry is simply relieved that he won't become the Steve Bartman of Democratic politics. (Cubs fans know who I'm talking about).

Campaigns did matter. Take a look at the House GOP incumbents who survived or won: Tom Reynolds (N.Y.-26), Deborah Pryce (Ohio-15), Steve Chabot (Ohio-01), Geoff Davis (Ky.-04) and Thelma Drake (Va.-02), to name a few. These were folks who prepared long and hard for '06 and it paid off.

Can Pelosi avoid being Newtered? I beat this topic to death 14 months ago, so I won't do it again. But House Democrats need to realize that what was done to Newt Gingrich between the '94 and '96 elections can be done to Pelosi. Frankly, it may be inevitable. It's probably Hillary Rodham Clinton's worst nightmare.

Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy live another day. Sure, Reps. Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer will get most of the credit for the Democratic success this year, but Dean has at least ducked blame. And since the party saw its fortunes improve in a lot of red states (which certainly kept the GOP busy in the final few weeks of the cycle), there's some vindication the Vermonster is going to be deservedly seeking.

In case you're wondering, the Talent loss is probably the toughest one for Republicans to take. It's their Harris Wofford -- the incumbent senator in '94 that many Democrats were more upset about losing over any other.

Just how will Sen. Joe Lieberman wield his power? The liberal blogosphere is caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. They don't want to threaten Harry Reid on seniority to the point that Lieberman gets tempted by Mitch McConnell, do they? BTW, the only Democrat bloggers should blame for Lieberman's victory is Ned Lamont who ran a terrible general election campaign.

The toughest job for Republicans in the next six months is going to be talking Northeastern Republicans out of retirement. Many are going to look at the bloodbath the GOP took in the region and wonder: "Am I next?"

Is anyone aware of how liberal Iowa and New Hampshire have apparently become? The four new members of Congress from these two very important '08 states indicate that a moderate Democrat may have a tougher time in the primaries than in years past.

Remember a while back when some of us thought the DCCC didn't do that great of a job recruiting candidates in Ohio? Well, Tuesday's results showed that campaigns and recruiting does matter, even in waves.

The exit polls didn't leak (kudos security) but they still skewed Dem.

Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is .

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