Beyond the tipping point

Tier Two: Toss-up contests
The bulk of the races in this category are in the battleground suburban districts that Democrats have perennially targeted. However, we have cranked up the competitiveness rating of 12 of those 30 contests in the past few weeks, as more and more Republican incumbents have begun to look quite vulnerable. Many of these districts are very Republican and were not long ago considered long shots for the Democrats.

If a wave were to wipe out the Republicans' 10 Tier One seats, Democrats would need just five pickups at this level to take control of the House. In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry carried nine of these districts -- those represented by Republicans Rob Simmons (CT-02), Christopher Shays (CT-04), Nancy Johnson (CT-05), Clay Shaw (FL-22), Charles Bass (NH-02), Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), and Dave Reichert (WA-08). Another five tilt Republican, but not reliably so -- those of the retiring Henry Hyde (IL-06) and of Reps. Jon Porter (NV-03), Steve Chabot (OH-01), Deborah Pryce (OH-15), and Thelma Drake (VA-02).

To win, the Republican candidate in each of these districts needs to attract a significant number of independent and Democratic votes. Yet, strategists on both sides concede that independent voters are angry with President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress. As one GOP operative recently lamented, independents are "not in a forgiving mood." And a very polarized Democratic base is showing very little interest in helping Republicans retain power.

Predicting how many independent voters will actually turn out to vote is difficult. But even in small numbers, they could hurt the GOP if they vote overwhelmingly against its candidates.

In a normal year, the GOP candidate would be favored to win the open seats of retiring Republican Reps. Mark Green (WI-08) and Mark Kennedy (MN-06), as well as those of Republican former Rep. Mark Foley (FL-16), who resigned after news broke that he had sent sexual e-mails to former House pages; and former Rep. Tom DeLay (TX-22). But these races are toss-ups this year because of the anti-Republican climate. And in Florida's 16th, Foley's name will still be on the ballot. To vote for the Republican candidate there, voters will have to choose Foley's name.

DeLay won renomination after being indicted on conspiracy charges, but he then decided not to run. In Texas, national Republicans refuse to write off DeLay's old district. They argue that even though their nominee, Houston City Council member Shelley Sekula Gibbs, does not appear on the ballot, the district's GOP lean could be enough to get her over the finish line as a write-in. The district's cumbersome voting machines make writing in Sekula Gibbs's name difficult, however.

In Wisconsin's 8th District, which Bush carried by 11 points in 2004, polls have consistently shown a tight race between Democratic allergist Steve Kagen and Republican state House Speaker John Gard. Democrats are working hard to portray Gard as a Madison insider who is in the back pocket of special interests. Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to take the shine off of Kagen's outsider appeal with ads labeling him a "millionaire doctor." In a normal year, undecided voters could be expected to break for the Republican. But this year's angry, disillusioned electorate might not.

In Minnesota's 6th District, polling shows a close race between Republican state Sen. Michele Bachman and child-safety advocate Patty Wetterling, who received 46 percent of the vote when she challenged Kennedy two years ago. The dour mood of Minnesota voters can't be helpful to Bachman, but she is the more polished candidate. The district's GOP lean -- Bush carried it by 15 points -- could also help protect the seat. Both sides are working to portray the other as out of step with this suburban/exurban Twin Cities district. Democratic ads hit Bachman on her support for a national sales tax, saying that she favors "radical ideas we can't afford." Similarly, Republicans have attacked Wetterling on taxes and immigration with ads that call her "too extreme for Minnesota."

Floridian Mark Foley's unexpected resignation from Congress created another Republican-leaning open seat -- and put it in peril. Foley resigned too late for his name to be taken off the ballot. So state Rep. Joe Negron, the GOP's designated replacement, is asking voters to support him by casting a ballot for Foley. The contest no longer looks like a lost cause for the GOP because the news media -- and a Republican spending campaign -- are trying to make sure that voters understand how to vote for Negron. The fact that Negron entered the race with his own base of support also helps him.

Negron is counting on voters to look beyond the Foley scandal and to stick with their Republican roots. His first ad featured Republican Gov. Jeb Bush telling viewers that although "we're all angry and upset by what's happened with Mark Foley ... maintaining control of Congress is important." Democratic nominee Tim Mahoney emphasizes his background as a conservative, "commonsense" businessman, while portraying Negron as a political insider who has favored insurers over homeowners.

In North Carolina's 11th District, the race between eight-term Republican Rep. Charles Taylor and Democrat Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback, was statistically tied before the candidates even began to campaign -- suggesting that voters are in the mood for change. Shuler's ads stress his "mountain values" and attack Taylor as a 16-year incumbent who is more interested in protecting special interests than the district's residents. Taylor and the NRCC have attacked Shuler for raising money from traditional liberal interest groups, such as trial lawyers and labor unions, and for his businesses' failure to always pay their taxes on time. Taylor hopes to benefit from the pork he has steered to the district as a member of the Appropriations Committee. No reliable public poll has been released recently, but private polling suggests that Taylor is in serious trouble.

Then there are the races that just a month or so ago would have been considered only third-tier opportunities for the Democrats because of an underlying Republican tilt or the lack of an experienced, well-funded Democratic candidate. Today, however, many of these races are tied or nearly tied.

In some places, Republican incumbents' weakness or missteps have put strong GOP districts into play. That's the case for the re-election bids of Richard Pombo (CA-11), Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04), Jean Schmidt (OH-02), and Barbara Cubin (WY-AL). In a different year, these incumbents could count on an energized and enthusiastic Republican base to save them. That's just not the case this year, especially in Ohio. In Colorado's 4th and in Wyoming's at-large race, however, third-party candidates might siphon off enough of the anti-incumbent vote to make Democratic victories in those districts impossible.

In New York's 26th, Tom Reynolds' role in the Foley scandal -- he was one of the Republican leaders who was alerted about the first inappropriate e-mails -- took a toll on his standing. Polling done soon after the Foley story broke showed Reynolds suddenly trailing his Democratic challenger, businessman Jack Davis. Reynolds might recover, however, because of well-stocked campaign coffers (he had more than $1.3 million in the bank on October 18) and Davis's penchant for making controversial statements. A Reynolds ad features Davis calling for increasing the eligibility age for Social Security benefits and suggesting that benefits "may have to be adjusted down."

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