Beyond the tipping point

Tier One: Most-endangered seats
Six of the 10 seats in this category are open -- the Republican incumbent has resigned or is retiring from Congress. Heading into this election year, the GOP was expected to have few open seats to defend in competitive districts -- giving the party a big advantage. In 1994, Democrats had 31 open seats to defend and lost 22 of them, or 71 percent.

This year, Republicans have 21 open seats, most of them in territory that is quite Republican. Nevertheless, the GOP is in real trouble in six of their open-seat races -- those in Arizona's 8th District, where Jim Kolbe is retiring; Colorado's 7th, where Bob Beauprez is leaving to run for governor; Florida's 13th, where Katherine Harris is running for the Senate; Iowa's 1st, where Jim Nussle is running for governor; New York's 24th, where Sherwood Boehlert is retiring; and Ohio's 18th, where Bob Ney is retiring. In 2004, President Bush carried all but the Colorado and Iowa districts.

Some of the GOP's pain in this group of seats has been self-inflicted. Ney dropped his re-election bid while under investigation for his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and he has since pleaded guilty to bribery. Ney's last-minute decision has disadvantaged the Republican candidate who is taking his place in Ohio's 18th. Democrats are using every opportunity to tie GOP state Sen. Joy Padgett to Ney and to the state's scandal-tainted governor, Republican Bob Taft.

Elsewhere, crowded primaries (in Arizona's 8th and Florida's 13th) produced Republican nominees who have been unable to unify their party's base. In both districts, Democrats nominated candidates who are a good fit ideologically and are tough to demonize.

Also in this tier are two Indiana Republicans who are trailing their Democratic challengers and must be considered underdogs. Indiana's unpopular Republican governor, Mitch Daniels, and a restless electorate have exacerbated the problems of Reps. John Hostettler (IN-08) and Chris Chocola (IN-02). Hostettler is a notorious underperformer who has survived his last few campaigns partly because of weak Democratic challengers and a strong standard-bearer at the top of the party's ticket. This year, the six-term lawmaker can count on neither advantage. The most recent independent poll showed Democratic Sheriff Brad Ellsworth ahead of Hostettler, 50 percent to 43 percent. Chocola, meanwhile, is not well liked. Polling has consistently shown the two-term Republican with high negatives among the voters in this northern Indiana district. Democrat Joe Donnelly is not as well financed or well known as Ellsworth, but the Notre Dame graduate is a good fi! t for this blue-collar district. A mid-October poll showed Donnelly ahead of Chocola, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Also on this list are incumbents with heavy personal baggage. In Pennsylvania's 10th, the political career of married Rep. Don Sherwood is on the verge of sinking because of his longtime mistress's allegation that he tried to choke her. The four-termer has tried everything to get his campaign back on track. His ads have highlighted the work he's done for the district and have attacked his Democratic challenger, Chris Carney. In one of the most talked-about ads this cycle, Sherwood asks voters for forgiveness, saying he is "truly sorry for disappointing you." He is quick to add that the "allegation of abuse was never true." Yet, the most recent poll showed Carney well ahead of Sherwood, 48 percent to 39 percent.

And, in the suburbs of Philadelphia, GOP Rep. Curt Weldon finds himself struggling to hold on to a district he has represented for 20 years. Already up against a significant headwind because of the anti-Republican national climate, Weldon's campaign was devastated by the recent disclosure that FBI agents raided the home of his daughter as part of an investigation into whether the congressman used his influence to help her and her business partner win lobbying contracts. The Democratic nominee is retired Vice Adm. Joe Sestak. A recent Democratic-sponsored poll showed Sestak ahead of Weldon, 50 percent to 43 percent.

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