Poll: Arizona

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 31 through November 2, 2006.  A total of 625 registered Arizona voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. 

A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state.  Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

Do you recognize the name ______?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

JANET NAPOLITANO	LEN MUNSIL	JOHN KYL	JIM PEDERSON
FAVORABLE	59%	31%	48%	37%
UNFAVORABLE	19%	25%	34%	39%
NEUTRAL	22%	31%	17%	23%
DON'T RECOGNIZE	0.3%	13%	1%	1%

If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:

NAPOLITANO	61%
MUNSIL	33%
HESS	0.6%
UNDECIDED	5%

If the 2006 election for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:

PEDERSON	41%
KYL	49%
MACK	3%
UNDECIDED	7%

Will your vote for U.S. Senate mainly be:

FOR CANDIDATE	67%
AGAINST OPPONENT	30%
NOT SURE	3%

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush’s overall job performance as President? (Is that, strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	25%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	17%	43%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	14%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	41%	55%
NOT SURE	2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?  Is that, strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?

STRONGLY APPROVE	1%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	25%	26%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	24%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	41%	65%
NOT SURE	9%

Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for U.S. Senate this year:

IRAQ	25%
IMMIGRATION	22%
TERRORISM/SECURITY	15%
MORAL/FAMILY	10%
ECONOMY/JOBS	9%
HEALTH CARE	8%
TAXES/GOVT SPNDG	7%
OTHER/DK	4%
GAS PRICE/ENERGY	0.5%

Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are heading in the right direction, or are they are off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION	32%
WRONG TRACK	60%
NOT SURE	8%

Do you approve or disapprove of the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq?  (Is that strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	20%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	22%	42%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	15%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	42%	57%
NOT SURE	1%

In your view, did either of the candidates for U.S. Senate attack the other unfairly?

NO	18%
PEDERSON DID	12%
KYL DID	7%
BOTH DID	50%
NOT SURE	14%

What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT	40%
REPUBLICAN	46%
INDEPENDENT	14%

Would you describe your personal political views as liberal, moderate, or conservative?

LIBERAL	18%
MODERATE	40%
CONSERVATIVE	41%
DK/REF	1%

What is your age?

18-34	15%
35-49	28%
50-64	31%
65+	25%
REF	0.8%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

WHITE	78%
BLACK	2%
HISPANIC	18%
OTHER	1%
REFUSED	0.8%

SEX:

MALE	49%
FEMALE	51%

REGION:

MARICOPA COUNTY	59%
PIMA COUNTY	18%
RURAL AZ	22%

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