Poll: Pennsylvania

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 31 through November 2, 2006.  A total of 625 registered Pennsylvania voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. 

A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state.  Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

Do you recognize the name ______?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

	ED RENDELL	LYNN SWANN	RICK SANTORUM	BOB CASEY, JR.
FAVORABLE	54%	33%	37%	43%
UNFAVORABLE	27%	23%	43%	28%
NEUTRAL	19%	44%	19%	29%
DON'T RECOGNIZE	0.2%	1%	0.3%	0%

If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:

RENDELL	56%
SWANN	38%
UNDECIDED	6%

If the 2006 election for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:

CASEY	52%
SANTORUM	39%
OTHER	2%
UNDECIDED	7%

Will your vote for U.S. Senate mainly be:

FOR CANDIDATE	62%
AGAINST OPPONENT	34%
NOT SURE	4%

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush’s overall job performance as President? (Is that, strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	20%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	20%	39%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	15%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	44%	60%
NOT SURE	1%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?  Is that, strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?

STRONGLY APPROVE	1%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	23%	24%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	25%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	43%	67%
NOT SURE	9%

Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for U.S. Senate this year:

IRAQ	29%
ECONOMY/JOBS	13%
HEALTH CARE	13%
TAXES/GOVT SPNDG	12%
MORAL/FAMILY	11%
TERRORISM/SECURITY	10%
IMMIGRATION	7%
OTHER/DK	4%
GAS PRICE/ENERGY	1%

Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are heading in the right direction, or are they are off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION	29%
WRONG TRACK	61%
NOT SURE	11%

Do you approve or disapprove of the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq?  (Is that strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	15%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	20%	36%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	14%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	49%	63%
NOT SURE	1%

In your view, did either of the candidates for U.S. Senate attack the other unfairly?

NO	20%
CASEY DID	8%
SANTORUM DID	15%
BOTH DID	45%
NOT SURE	13%

What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT	49%
REPUBLICAN	42%
INDEPENDENT	9%

Would you describe your personal political views as liberal, moderate, or conservative?

LIBERAL	21%
MODERATE	45%
CONSERVATIVE	34%
DK/REF	0.2%

What is your age?

18-34	10%
35-49	28%
50-64	33%
65+	29%
REF	0.3%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

WHITE	86%
BLACK	13%
HISPANIC	1%
OTHER	1%
REFUSED	1%

SEX:

MALE	49%
FEMALE	51%

REGION:

PHILADELPHIA CO	11%
PHILADELPHIA SUBS	21%
NORTHEAST PA	17%
CENTRAL PA	16%
WESTERN PA	15%
ALLEGHANY CO	12%
SOUTHWEST PA	8%