Poll: New Jersey

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from November 1 through November 3, 2006.  A total of 625 registered New Jersey voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. 

A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state.  Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

Do you recognize the name ______?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

BOB MENENDEZ	TOM KEAN JR
38%	42%
35%	32%
25%	24%
0.8%	1%

If the 2006 election for New Jersey’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:

MENENDEZ	48%
KEAN	41%
OTHER	3%
UNDECIDED	8%

Will your vote for U.S. Senate mainly be:

FOR CANDIDATE	67%
AGAINST OPPONENT	31%
NOT SURE	2%

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush’s overall job performance as President? (Is that, strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	24%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	17%	42%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	11%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	46%	57%
NOT SURE	1%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?  Is that, strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?

STRONGLY APPROVE	2%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	33%	35%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	23%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	38%	61%
NOT SURE	5%

Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for U.S. Senate this year:

IRAQ	35%
TERRORISM/SECURITY	16%
TAXES/GOVT SPNDG	14%
HEALTH CARE	10%
ECONOMY/JOBS	8%
MORAL/FAMILY	5%
IMMIGRATION	1%
GAS PRICE/ENERGY	0.2%
OTHER/DK	12%

Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are heading in the right direction, or are they are off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION	37%
WRONG TRACK	57%
NOT SURE	6%

Do you approve or disapprove of the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq?  (Is that strongly approve/disapprove or somewhat approve/disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE	19%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE	17%	36%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE	14%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	49%	63%
NOT SURE	1%

In your view, did either of the candidates for U.S. Senate attack the other unfairly?

NO	21%
MENENDEZ DID	9%
KEAN DID	7%
BOTH DID	54%
NOT SURE	9%

What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT	41%
REPUBLICAN	33%
INDEPENDENT	27%

Would you describe your personal political views as liberal, moderate, or conservative?

LIBERAL	24%
MODERATE	44%
CONSERVATIVE	30%
DK/REF	2%

What is your age?

18-34	17%
35-49	29%
50-64	29%
65+	25%
REF	0.5%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

WHITE	81%
BLACK	11%
HISPANIC	6%
OTHER	0.5%
REFUSED	1%

SEX:

MALE	49%
FEMALE	51%

REGION:

SOUTH JERSEY	21%
CENTRAL JERSEY	28%
NEWARK METRO	31%
NORTH JERSEY	20%