Heading into the home stretch

The Senate still looks likely to see a net loss for Republicans of at least four seats, putting the best case scenario for the GOP at a 51-49 seat majority, but a five-seat gain that would result in a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Dick Cheney breaking the tie, or a six-seat gain that would give Democrats a 51-49 seat majority is most likely. There remains an outside chance of a seven-seat, 52-48 Democratic majority.

Incumbents Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania still are facing seemingly insurmountable deficits. There is contradictory data on just how far behind Conrad Burns in Montana and Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island are, and whether they are in or out of striking distance of pulling off an upset re-election victory, but the odds still run against both. On the Democratic side, there are some polls, including independent polling, showing challenger Jim Pederson pulling within striking distance of incumbent Jon Kyl in Arizona, though GOP polling shows their candidate with a very stable lead that looks likely to hold. If the night is truly horrendous for the GOP, Kyl could lose, but it probably won't be that bad for them.

Then come the fun races, the really close ones, the ones that political aficionados over-analyze but at the end of the day are truly are too close to call. Republican incumbent Jim Talent in Missouri leads the list, and while I have long given his Virginia colleague George Allen the edge over James Webb, there is enough contradictory polling data in that race to convince me that the outcome is up in the air. The same applies to the Tennessee open-seat fight between Republican Bob Corker and Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr.. There are polls, all taken in the last five days, that show each ahead. What's the point of picking a winner in a race this close?

Does an African-American candidate, like Ford, face a hidden anti-black vote and have to be a certain number of points ahead going into Election Day in order to win? Maybe, it certainly was true in the 1980s and early 1990s in statewide contests in California, North Carolina and Virginia. Is it still true and if so, what is that number? At the same time, if GOP voters really are disillusioned, how far ahead in the polls does a Republican candidate need to be in order to be victorious on Election Day? Nobody knows the answers to this. Someone can hope or hypothesize, but nobody really knows.

In the House, it would take a miracle for the GOP to hold onto their majority. The losses look very likely to exceed 20 seats, and a 20- to 35-seat loss is most likely, but we would not be surprised for it to exceed 35 seats. The vulnerable GOP seats are there, the wave is there, maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't.

Republicans also face a tough road in governors' races. The GOP must defend 22 of the 36 seats up this year. It does not help that nine of those seats are open. At this point it would seem that Democrats will pick up the open seats in Colorado, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio. The contest for the open seat in Arkansas has gotten closer, but Democrats retain an advantage. The open seats in Nevada and Idaho are up for grabs. There are two GOP incumbent governors in trouble; Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota and Bob Ehrlich in Maryland.

While Democrats have four seats that are too close to call, the political climate would seem to put a thumb on the scale for them in most of these races: Govs. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan, Ted Kulongoski in Oregon and James Doyle in Wisconsin, as well as the open seat in Iowa.

Many have commented, quite correctly, that the biggest variables are turnout levels among independents and Republicans. If independents show up in their normal, relatively low midterm election levels, GOP losses will tend to run on the lower end of those ranges. But if there is a significant uptick in independent turnout, the losses could go much higher, as Democrats show huge leads among independents (20 points in some cases) in many races.

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