Now there are seven

New Jersey — Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez
This New Jersey Senate race appears to defy political gravity. Despite the anti-Republican political climate nationally, one of the bluest states is producing a very close contest, pitting an appointed Democratic senator, Robert Menendez, against GOP state Sen. Tom Kean Jr.

Republicans struggle here even when the national climate favors them: New Jersey voters have not sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972. That Kean is beating the odds this year by making this a real race against a well-funded and seasoned politician is almost inexplicable. Almost.

Several seemingly unrelated factors have combined to make this race competitive. The first and perhaps most prominent is the issue of corruption. New Jersey voters have a high tolerance for political scandal at the state and local levels. They wear that tolerance almost as a badge of honor. But there has been no shortage of political scandal this year. A former state senator pleaded guilty recently to corruption charges. The attorney general, who was appointed by the governor, was forced to resign after she interceded on behalf of her boyfriend, who had been stopped for a traffic violation. Former Democratic Gov. James McGreevey, who resigned after declaring that he had had a sexual relationship with his former homeland security adviser and that the man was threatening to sue him for sexu! al harassment, is on a national tour promoting a tell-all book. And Menendez is caught up in an investigation of whether he did something improper in steering federal funds to a nonprofit organization that was renting a building from him. Menendez denies any wrongdoing and disputes the Kean campaign's charge that he is under investigation. The U.S. attorney's office acknowledges that it subpoenaed the nonprofit's property-rental records. Democrats note that the U.S. attorney is a Republican appointee and argue that his actions are politically motivated.

Even New Jersey voters appear a little scandal-weary. It does not help Menendez that he ran the political machine in Hudson County for years and that the county has long been synonymous with corruption.

The second factor in the Republican nominee's success in making this a contest is Kean himself, the son of a popular former governor who has stayed in the public eye by co-chairing the 9/11 commission. According to polls, voters are well aware of the differences between father and son, but the name Kean represents a solid brand. When the elder Kean was governor, no scandals -- at least no serious ones -- were associated with his administration. The state was prospering, and Kean's famous tourism-boosting television ads were a source of pride for residents. This year, the younger Kean entered the Senate race with high name recognition and low unfavorable ratings. Just as important, he is viewed as ethical.

New Jersey Republicans typically nominate conservatives, but Kean is running as a moderate, putting him more in sync with average voters. He opposes President Bush's call to create a new path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and he has called on House Speaker Dennis Hastert to resign in the wake of the Mark Foley page scandal. This has helped Kean to remain competitive. He has focused nearly all of his paid media on Menendez, painting him as another corrupt Democratic politician.

Another factor keeping this race in play is that Menendez remains largely unknown to many voters, despite being the incumbent. New Jersey is a notoriously difficult state in which to gain name recognition because it does not have its own media market and is split between the expensive New York City and Philadelphia markets. Before being appointed to the Senate in January, Menendez served seven terms in the House from the 13th District, which is in the northern part of the state. He needs to make himself better known in South Jersey, but the Philadelphia media market is crowded with ads for Pennsylvania's gubernatorial, Senate, and House candidates, making it even harder than usual to break through. This could help Kean, because voters know his name.

For months, polls on the race were all over the map, with the lead bouncing back and forth. Menendez has gone on offense, airing television and radio ads attacking Kean as a rubber stamp for Republicans and for Bush's agenda. Democratic strategists say that the moves are paying off, contending that Kean's negative ratings have increased and that Menendez has begun to consistently run ahead in the polls.

Republican operatives disagree with this assessment, noting that the race remains within the polls' margin of error. They insist that Kean has Menendez on the run and argue that the Democrats' negative ads will wind up hurting their candidate more than Kean.

Both sides' arguments seem to have some merit: By Election Day, voters might find both candidates to be unacceptable. The question then will be whether an unacceptable Democrat trumps an unacceptable Republican in a blue state.

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