Now there are seven

By Jennifer E. Duffy, Cook Political Report

updated 5:53 p.m. ET Nov. 1, 2006

Despite the volatility of recent weeks, the overall outlook for the Senate has not changed much. The six Republican-held seats that were rated highly vulnerable three months ago remain in serious jeopardy. Democrats have only one seat in that category. Neither party holds many seats that could provide a second tier of opportunity for the other party; Republicans have one (Arizona), and Democrats have three (Maryland, Michigan, and Washington).

What has changed is Democrats' chances of picking up the all-important sixth seat that would give them a Senate majority. There are now seven GOP seats at risk. So, to take control, Democrats no longer have to run the table while holding all of their own seats.

With the election only days away, here is where the most competitive contests stand.

Missouri — Republican Sen. Jim Talent
There are more than a few days when this race provides flashbacks to 2002, when Republican Jim Talent was running against appointed Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan.

In that contest, polls showed the race continually seesawing, and neither candidate was ever able to open up a meaningful lead. The election turned on Republicans' arguments that Carnahan wasn't up to the job and on voter turnout in a good year for GOP candidates across the board. Talent edged the incumbent, 50 percent to 49 percent.

Fast-forward four years to the Missouri Senate race: Now it is Talent's turn to run for a full six-year term, and this time the climate is poor for Republicans. Polling again shows a statistically insignificant lead alternating between Talent and his Democratic challenger, state Auditor Claire McCaskill. Democrats recently released a poll showing McCaskill ahead by 5 points. The most recent public poll [PDF] shows Talent ahead by 3.

As in 2002, both candidates are well known, neither has significant negatives, and turnout will be the key to victory. Democrats hope that state ballot initiatives on stem-cell research and raising the minimum wage will draw their voters to the polls and put McCaskill over the top. McCaskill attributes her failure to win the governorship in 2004 -- she drew 48 percent of the vote -- to spending too little time in rural areas. She is campaigning vigorously there now. Refighting the last war can be a risky strategy, but if this race ends up close, attracting a bigger share of the rural vote could put McCaskill over the top.

Talent is running on his Senate record while working to portray McCaskill as a liberal campaigning as a moderate. This is one Senate contest in which both the Democratic and the Republican national parties have made a significant investment. It is also one where the GOP's vaunted 72-hour get-out-the-vote program has been very successful in the past. While its effectiveness depends on an energized GOP base -- and signs abound that the base is demoralized -- Republicans argue that the stem-cell research initiative is motivating conservatives to vote. They also question whether a vote in favor of stem-cell research is an automatic vote against Talent.

This race is firmly in the toss-up column and it will be a key measure of the strength of the Democratic wave. Talent has no significant liabilities, apart from having to defend his party and the Bush administration. Yet a sizable wave could well sweep him out of office.

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