Across the river, but a world away

China in the dark, too
Despite the physical proximity of North Korea and its people, China has no lock on reading Kim Jong Il. When he ordered the nuclear test, he made China look bad, lose face. The world was counting on China, North Korea’s most active and influential trading partner to diplomatically back Kim down.

To be sure, China has muscle. In a heartbeat, it could shut down the trucks of supplies still rolling across the Friendship Bridge, North Korea’s lifeline. But, a daily convoy scarcely slowed since sanctions were implemented.

China knows it could single handedly topple Kim’s government but it doesn’t want to. And the reason has little to do with North Korea being some sort of communist comrade.

In the 1990’s during North Korea’s famine, as many as 300,000 refugees flooded China. In a country of 1.3 billion people with a one-child policy but where the population still increases 12 million yearly, that doesn’t fit into the plan. And even worse, a refugee exodus could happen again if Kim was run off. And in addition, how comfortable would China be with a reunified and democratic Korea at its border?

And so now, China must be relieved that North Korea agreed to return to disarmament negotiations Tuesday - especially after having done a diplomatic dance to make the return to talks happen.

China has had a lot on its plate: trying to protect its own interests, calm an unpredictable nuclear neighbor and back key sanctions that are important to its vital trading partner — the United States — including more thorough inspections of North Korean outbound cargo. I listened to a high-ranking U.S. diplomatic official just last week as he explained what America’s real fears are: “We don’t worry about Kim blowing things up, we worry about proliferation, his selling and exporting every weapon part, including nuclear, that he can.”

What next? Only Kim Jong Il knows
On the streets of Dandong, our crew sees an illegal money changer make a cash swap out of his bag, a frequent sight here, giving the appearance that life appears unchanged here along the border.

Cancan Chu / Getty Images file Chinese trucks heading toward North Korea line up on the China-North Korea Friendship Bridge that crosses over the Yalu River.

Was the nuclear test just another North Korean cry for attention? Will the diplomatic effort now in the offing yield any results this time?

Or do the satellite images now showing renewed activity around North Korea’s test site portend a second nuclear weapons test as the world puts down its guard ?

The Chinese like American officials are certain of one thing: Only Kim Jong Il  knows.

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