MTP Transcript for Nov. 5

SEN. SCHUMER: Well, we think we’re going to win both of those states. I think in blue states in particular, the wind is strongly at our back.  Democrats, independents, even Republicans in those states want change. And when they find out, as they have, that candidates like these are going to continue a rubber-stamp Congress—both have said—both Tom Kean Jr. and Michael Steele have said “stay the course in Iraq,” people of their states don’t like it. Both have supported—or both are against stem cell research, the people in their states don’t like it. Kean has talked about privatizing Social Security. Michael Steele is against stem cell research. They are so against what the people in the states want that I believe we’re going to keep both of those states.

MR. RUSSERT: Senator Dole, there are seven key battleground states for the Republicans. Let me start with Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey, our latest poll, 52; Rick Santorum, 39. Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown, 50; Mike DeWine, Republican, 44. These are all polls out this morning. Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee, the Republican, 46; Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democrat, 45. Virginia:

Jim Webb, the Democrat, 46; George Allen, the Republican, 45. Missouri:

Claire McCaskill, the Democrat, 46; Jim Talent, 45. Montana: Conrad Burns, 47; John Tester, 47--dead heat. In Tennessee: the Republican Bob Corker, 50;

Harold Ford, the Democrat, 38. In six of those seven, the Republican is either behind or tied. And with Chafee up one.

SEN. DOLE: You know, we’ve got...

MR. RUSSERT: What do you think?

SEN. DOLE: We’ve got some internal polls that certainly differ from some of the ones that you just read.

MR. RUSSERT: So you’re going to sweep them all?

SEN. DOLE: You know, let’s—let me, let me talk about what is normally regarded, as you guys talk about the firewall with Virginia and Tennessee and Missouri. And we’re winning in all those states. Now, I wanted to expand that firewall, because I have a much broader firewall. You look at, at, at Rhode Island, the state of Montana, these are very, very tight races. And then we’ve been putting money into three blue states. Chuck has had to put millions of dollars into New Jersey, into Maryland, into Michigan. You’ve put a lot of money into the state of Washington. That’s millions that doesn’t go against our incumbents. So as I look at the situation at this point, sure, this is a very tough cycle, no question.

MR. RUSSERT: Why? Why?

SEN. DOLE: When a president has been—when a president has been re-elected, you look through history, and there’s no question it’s a very tough cycle.  But you know, we’ve got some X factors that really enable us to have an opportunity to break through, to weather the storm. For example, corruption in New Jersey. Tom Kean has been a real reformer on trying to get rid of pay-to-play, where you have to pay in order, in order to—pay contributions in order to get contracts. Bob Menendez, his opponent, is under federal criminal investigation. That issue is front and center. You look in Maryland and you’ve got a fresh leadership here in Michael Steele in terms of wanting to really shake up Washington. And his opponent, Ben Cardin, has been in government for 40 years. You know, Michael has just gotten the endorsements of some key African-American leaders in Prince Georges County, great leader.  Up in Michigan, that state—here’s the X factor there. The state is, is really hurting economically: 7.1 percent unemployment, three years of job losses. Debbie Stabenow’s policies are not right for growing the economy there. She’s...

MR. RUSSERT: But nobody in Michigan has the, has been close.

SEN. DOLE: Oh, Michael, Michael, Michael Bouchard is doing...

MR. RUSSERT: (Unintelligible)...

SEN. DOLE: ...a great job. But let me tell you, they’re a late closing state.

MR. RUSSERT: OK.

SEN. DOLE: Remember John Engler was...

MR. RUSSERT: So, so, so bottom line...

SEN. DOLE: ...that was double digits—at this point, he was down double digits and won.

MR. RUSSERT: So bottom line, bottom line.

SEN. DOLE: Debbie Stabenow was down at this point, and she won.

MR. RUSSERT: All right. You’ve endorsed all your candidates. But bottom line, will the Republicans hold control of the Senate?

SEN. DOLE: Yes, they will. We will hold—we will hold the majority, yes.

MR. RUSSERT: She’s confident. Will the Democrats take control of the Senate?

SEN. SCHUMER: Well, Tim, we’re right on the edge of taking back the Senate.  I wouldn’t open up the champagne or do the high-fives, but we are feeling very good, something we never would’ve said even three months ago.

Here’s what’s happened: This election has evolved into a national referendum on change. And when the election becomes a referendum on George Bush and the rubber-stamp Congress, the, the Republicans lose. And that’s what’s happened from one end of the country to the other. People are not happy with what’s going on in foreign policy—not only Iraq, but North Korea, Afghanistan. The middle class is struggling here at home. Wages are flat. The overall macro numbers are good, but most of that’s going to the very high end, and the average American’s wages are flat, tuition costs go up, prescription drug costs go up, energy costs go up. So people want change, and that’s why we are so, so close to taking back the Senate.

SEN. DOLE: I—well, I...

MR. RUSSERT: Let me talk. We—I’ll come back to the Senate, I...

SEN. DOLE: There are things that need to be answered there.

MR. RUSSERT: I, I’ll come back to the Senate, I promise. Let me turn to the House. Congressman Reynolds, you were considered a shoe-in for re-election.  Here’s the latest poll from the Buffalo News this morning. Tom Reynolds, 47;

Jack Davis, Democratic opponent, 46. What happened?

REP. REYNOLDS: Well, I moved 15 points, according to the same pollster, in two weeks, when most put the obituary on the 26^th district of New York. It’s all about turnout, and my race is going to be the model, just like 35, 36, 37 races across the country. They’re in the margin of error. It’s about turnout. One thing you know about Buffalo: It isn’t snowing today. There were 400 people in the streets yesterday running the operation of turn out the vote. And we’ll do it today. We’ll do it tomorrow. And if that’s being done across the country, we’re in this race to hold the House. It all gets down for Republicans turning out the vote.

MR. RUSSERT: The same poll, however, asked this question: What did they think of your role in the Foley page scandal? Thirty-one approve, 57 disapprove. And the—their concern goes back to this: In the spring of ‘05, you say that Congressman Rodney Alexander “brought to” your “attention the existence of the e-mails between Mark Foley and a former page of Mr.  Alexander’s,” that you, “told the speaker of a conversation Mr. Alexander had with me.” Speaker Hastert says he doesn’t remember that conversation.

REP. REYNOLDS: Two things: It was the spring of ‘06. And second, the speaker has never denied the conversation. What he has said, he didn’t recall it.

MR. RUSSERT: Why did Mr. Alexander, a congressman from Louisiana, go to you, the chairman of a campaign committee, as opposed to the page committee or the speaker—why would he be thinking politically? Why go to you?

REP. REYNOLDS: Well, I never outright asked him, but I got the impression maybe he came by to, to tell me that based on the fact that I know Rodney pretty well. I was one of those that helped bring him across to the Republican side of the aisle.

MR. RUSSERT: But was he thinking politics?

REP. REYNOLDS: I don’t know; you’ll have to ask him, Tim.

MR. RUSSERT: A two...

REP. REYNOLDS: I spent three hours meeting with the media on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, in Buffalo, answering both national and local media. And as pundits and others made the observation that Reynolds was cooked, he was—by the same pollster, 15 down. We’ve moved past this. We’re now back into what I call “all politics is local.” The issues in western New York are jobs, taxes and Social Security. And that’s what this debate’s been on, and that’s where we will close as it goes to the voters on Tuesday.

MR. RUSSERT: But you’re in a tight race because of this issue?

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