Embattled Jefferson basks in La.'s affection

updated 12:16 p.m. ET Oct. 27, 2006

NEW ORLEANS - They line up to kiss him, hug him, slap hands, give him their blessing. William Jefferson, an eight-term House Democrat enmeshed in an FBI bribery investigation, is feeling good about his re-election prospects.

"All right!" a relaxed Jefferson warbles into the ear of a female supporter who offers her cheek to his puckered lips. "How are you?" she asks, one of several fans at the entrance of a nursing home he's picked as a campaign stop.

"Doing fine, doing fine," Jefferson repeats like a line he's picked up from a self-help manual on being upbeat. He moves onto the next body, the next warm exchange. More hugs, more kisses, more brotherly love.

Down here, allegations of wrongdoing aren't necessarily the kiss of death for politicians.

"All of them are doing basically the same thing - but he just got caught," Herman Hill, 53, said about Jefferson. Wearing a "Don't Mess With Jeff" campaign pin, Hill grinned when asked to explain his views on politicians: "They're stealing. They say they want to help people, but they're helping themselves."

For the record, Jefferson, 59, has denied bribery allegations stemming from $90,000 in marked $100 bills found in his freezer. He's known as a Bible-quoting Baptist who abstains from alcohol and tobacco.

But for all his optimism about being re-elected, Jefferson was denied the endorsement of his own party and is hoping the Nov. 7 open primary sends him into a Dec. 9 runoff. State Rep. Karen Carter secured the endorsement, and Democratic officials have quietly given her some fundraising help.

New Orleans' voter turnout big factor
Jefferson could win outright by getting more than half the vote, but with 12 challengers, several of them rising stars in city politics, that's unlikely.

If Jefferson makes it to a runoff, his opponent is likely to garner the vast majority of white voters, a largely unforgiving 30 percent of the electorate when it comes to Jefferson's alleged misdeeds. Also, his challenger will likely be a fellow black candidate capable of slicing into his bread and butter - middle-age and retired Protestant black voters.

No white candidate - including the leading Republican - has fared well in pre-election polls in this predominantly black and historically Democratic district.

"He has enough voters who are loyal that will get him into a runoff ... But every time we talk about New Orleans it depends on who votes," said pollster Bernie Pinsonat.

That's hard to pin down because Hurricane Katrina changed the city's demographics and displaced tens of thousands of voters.

Politics of Hurricane Katrina
Jefferson, like his opponents, has campaigned at FEMA trailer parks and plans radio ads in Houston and Atlanta, which took in many Katrina evacuees. He believes displaced voters could make up a third of the final vote tally.

The registrar of voters is uncertain how many voters remain displaced from Jefferson's district. They may vote early - by returning to the city - or by mail absentee ballot. As they did in the mayoral race earlier this year, many displaced voters living in the region but outside the city are likely to choose to drive in on Election Day.

Jefferson arrived on the New Orleans scene in the 1970s as a Harvard-educated lawyer from the backwaters of north Louisiana, the sixth of 10 children brought up in a three-room country home. By 1980, he represented New Orleans in the state Senate. At 42, he became the first black from Louisiana in the House since Reconstruction.

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