So you want to be a pundit? Study these races

Fla.-22: What matters more in a contested House race -- local turnout clues indicating a Democratic surge in the district, or statewide turnout factors signaling the GOP is in better shape? Can national rage become localized? If it can, then Democrat Ron Klein probably knocks off veteran Republican Rep. Clay Shaw. And if that is the trend, then Democrats can win similar districts in places like New Mexico, Wisconsin, Washington and Nevada. But if the GOP's structural advantages are sound, then seats like Shaw's will stay red and the battle for control is a seat-by-seat struggle that favors the GOP to hold.

Ky.-03: So will there be a wave or not? And will the wave be the mirror image of the one the GOP rode in '94 to a 52-seat gain? While the Democrats, at best, are looking at a 30- to 35-seat ceiling, this Kentucky district should be monitored to see if the wave's crashing hard. The Democrats have a candidate in John Yarmuth who strategists inside the Beltway believe is probably unelectable in a normal environment. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Anne Northup is one of the most battle-tested incumbents serving in Congress, but she still represents a left-leaning district. So in a tidal wave election, she loses. The beauty of spotlighting this race is that Kentucky counts its votes early, so we'll get a fairly early clue on Election Night.

Ohio-01: No election tapestry would be complete without an Ohio race this cycle. The reason to highlight this fight is because it's a district that was previously redrawn to make Republican Rep. Steve Chabot less vulnerable. It's also home to some of the most reliable GOP voters in the state. For Chabot to lose, GOP turnout has to be down a bit. And if it is down, it could indicate that the GOP is struggling to motivate its base. Other Republican-held seats in similar situations include two Democrats are targeting in Minnesota and three in California. Democrats need a depressed GOP base and amped up turnout among their own to win these six -- higher Democratic turnout alone won't do it.

Conn.-02: GOP success in '94 can be attributed to geography more than anything else. The party just cleaned up in the South. Well, for Democrats, if they simply started winning the congressional seats in the Northeast that their presidential candidates have carried in the last four elections, they'd be awfully close to getting the 15 seats needed for control.

No seat better exemplifies the Democrats' Northeast opportunities and difficulties than the one held by Rep. Rob Simmons (R). He's very good at voting in the interest of his district over his party. But is his party ID just too much of a problem for left-leaning, Pepperidge Farm, independent voters? Democrats' chances of holding a congressional majority in '08 are dependent on the party winning a lion's share of these Northeastern targets in '06. If Democrats don't pull many of these but still get the majority, it actually puts them in more peril in '08.

N.C.-11: Will ethics problems be the fireable offense that moves some voters in fairly Republican districts to elect a Democrat? If Republican Rep. Charlie Taylor can't survive this time against Democrat Heath Shuler, then it probably means the ethics problems have penetrated the voter psyche and could spell trouble for incumbents battling similar issues in places like Calif.-04, Calif.-11, Ohio-18, Fla.-16 and of course, Texas-22.

So if you are tired of trying to keep up with every new poll that comes out for 10 Senate races and another 60 House races, just concentrate on these eight contests to see the trends. Now, back to the roller-coaster ride already in progress.

Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is .

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