So you want to be a pundit? Study these races

ON THE TRAIL

By Chuck Todd

Political Director

updated 4:19 p.m. ET Oct. 25, 2006

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - I dread the last two weeks of every election cycle. Self doubt seeps in with every new poll release. Thoughts from two months ago seem silly now.

In trying to stay sane, I'm focusing on eight races (three Senate and five House) and learning everything I can about them. How these eight end up on Nov. 7 will tell us everything we need to know about this cycle from personality to demographics to issues.

My "Elite Eight" picks are: Missouri Senate, Tennessee Senate, Virginia Senate, Fla.-22, Ky.-03, Ohio-01, Conn.-02 and N.C.-11.

The Senate trio is an obvious pick because the party that wins two of those three is likely to control the chamber come January.

But I chose the five House races because they exemplify larger trends. Individually, they are interesting (albeit not necessarily the most hotly contested), but each represents a bigger part of the national story that is shaping this cycle.

Missouri: In a vacuum, Republican Sen. Jim Talent should be a slight favorite to win re-election, but the vacuum was destroyed months ago. Were statewide Democratic victories in 2000 an anomaly or is there a Democratic vote to turn out that can get Claire McCaskill (D) over the top?

Of all the Democratic challengers, no one has dealt with a bigger funding disparity than McCaskill. That could mean that if she's not dead yet, she can't be killed. Watch the suburban vote in Kansas City and St. Louis: Does enough of it turn blue to offset Talent's rural strength? In '02, many of us were writing off Democrat Jean Carnahan at this point in the campaign -- most polls had her down five points. But the Democratic turnout effort in the state made it a nail-biter. Was that Democratic surge about love for the Carnahans, or do Republicans have to have a five-point lead on Election Day to hold off the surge?

Tennessee: Of the three races in the Senate trio, this one seems the least likely to be nationalized. This race is about Democrat Harold Ford (Jr.) If an undecided voter believes this race is between Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, then Jr. probably will win that vote. But if an undecided voter is choosing between a Ford and Corker, then that person probably pulls the Republican lever.

Two regions to pay special attention to are the western part of the state and the Knoxville area. White, Democratic voters in the west who probably voted for Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) in '02 and Al Gore for president in 2000 may not be fans of the Memphis Ford machine. And while Knoxville is one of the oldest Republican strongholds in the South, it's more moderately Republican than other GOP breeding grounds in the region. Bredesen did surprisingly well there in '02, and Ford needs to overperform there in order to offset potential erosion in the west.

Virginia: As many longtime readers know, I've had to recuse myself from covering the ins and outs of this battle. So, forget the characters in this play a minute and focus on two geographical areas of the state -- Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Will enough Democrats show up in NOVA to offset Republican strongholds in Richmond and Roanoke? The corner of the state used to be competitive for the two parties, but now there is evidence suggesting that may not be the case.

Hampton Roads is the true "swing" area of the state. The candidate who carries that area probably wins, but there are a few caveats. What will black turnout be like? Will blacks make up more than 10 percent of the electorate or less? And if more, how much more? Also, how blue does NOVA become? So blue that it alters the normal turnout model of the state?

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