Democrats are measuring the drapes

By Jennifer E. Duffy

updated 4:22 p.m. ET Oct. 23, 2006

This year's 36 gubernatorial contests continue to take a backseat to the battle for control of Congress, yet Republicans appear headed for significant losses in those races as well. They hold 28 governorships, and the anti-GOP climate nationally may well cost them their majority.

The Achilles' heel for Republicans is their open seats. Of the 22 governorships that Republicans must defend, nine are open -- five of them because of term limits. (Democrats have just one open governorship.)

Three of the nine -- the governorships of Colorado, New York, and Ohio -- are lost causes for the GOP.

In Colorado, a red state where Democrats are gaining ground, Democratic nominee Bill Ritter, a former district attorney of Denver, is 15 points ahead of GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez. In New York, state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the Democratic nominee, holds an insurmountable lead over former state House Minority Leader John Faso. In Ohio, the combination of Republican scandals at the state level, the national political climate, and a perception that Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is too conservative to be governor has stalled the Republican's efforts, giving the lead to Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland.

Interactive 2006 key races The races to watch.

Democrats appear likely to capture two other GOP-held governorships as well -- those of Arkansas and Massachusetts. In Arkansas, state Attorney General Mike Beebe, the Democratic nominee, had a nearly 20-point lead over former Rep. Asa Hutchinson, who is also a former undersecretary of the Homeland Security Department. Republicans contend that Hutchinson was hampered by his late start and is beginning to close the gap. But time is running out, and Beebe's support is hovering near 50 percent while Hutchinson is not yet much above 30 percent.

Republicans have held Massachusetts' governorship since 1990, but their streak may be coming to an end. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney General for Civil Rights Deval Patrick easily defeated two better-known candidates, including the state attorney general, to clinch the Democratic nomination. The size of Patrick's victory boosted his momentum coming out of the September 19 primary, and his message of change and optimism has won him broad support. At the end of September, he had a 25-point advantage over GOP Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, retiring Gov. Mitt Romney's heir apparent. Patrick isn't the only threat to Healey; businessman Christy Mihos, a moderate Republican, is running as an independent and will siphon votes away from her.

Healey has worked to portray Patrick, who is African-American, as soft on crime. She has highlighted his involvement in the case of a convicted rapist; the Democrat wrote letters of support on the convict's behalf and helped pay for DNA tests. Patrick has since apologized for playing down his role in the case. The DNA test results convinced him that "justice has been served," he said. A recent Healey-sponsored television ad focused on another case, in which Patrick defended a man convicted of killing a Florida state trooper after escaping from prison. The killer received a death sentence, but according to the spot, Patrick got the penalty reduced, making the man eligible for parole. At the end of the ad, a voice-over says, "While lawyers have a right to defend admitted cop killers, do we really want one as our governor?" The ad raises a lot of questions, but the most relevant is whether it will hurt Patrick the way then-Gov. Michael Dukakis was hurt by George H.W. Bush's 1988 ads about paroled killer Willie Horton.

A Suffolk University poll taken after Healey's advertising began showed her closing the gap to 13 points and Patrick's support dropping below 50 percent. Mihos took 7 percent in the survey.

In this political climate, Patrick is on track to win, but Healey's efforts to depict him as an unacceptable choice are worth watching.

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