Polls: Democrats closer to taking Senate control

NEW YORK - Two weeks out from the midterm elections, a second round of MSNBC/McClatchy polls, conducted by Mason-Dixon in eight states, show Democrats are slightly closer to taking control of the Senate than they were last month. The Democrats are ahead or within striking distance in all these states but there is no evidence of a national Democratic “tidal wave.”

In the Senate, Democrats need to gain six seats to regain control of the chamber. These new polls show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of gaining control.

The poll numbers
Here are the state-by-state results for the latest MSNBC/McClatchy polls. Click the state name to read the poll data. And click the candidates’ names for their profiles.

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum is well behind his Democratic challenger Bob Casey, with Casey currently ahead by 12 percentage points, 51 percent to 39 percent, with 7 percent undecided. In an MSNBC/McClatchy poll conducted in late September, Casey was up by 9 percentage points. In Rhode Island, Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse has opened a slight lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, with Whitehouse supported by 48 percent of likely voters, compared to Chafee’s 43 percent. There are 9 percent undecided. A month ago, Whitehouse and Chafee were tied at 42 percent to 41 percent. In Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill and incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent remain virtually tied, with McCaskill supported by 46 percent of likely voters and Talent supported by 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Last month, the candidates were tied with 43 percent each, and 13 percent were undecided. In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez remains tied with his Republican challenger, Tom Kean Jr., with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Menendez and 42 percent supporting Kean. There are still 11 percent undecided. In late September, the candidates were also in a virtual tie (44 percent for Menendez to 41 percent for Kean). In Washington, incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell has increased her sizable lead over Republican challenger Mike McGavick. She now leads by 15 percentage points, 52 percent to 37 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Last month, she led by 10 percentage points (50 percent to 40 percent). In Ohio, incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has fallen behind Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, with 40 percent supporting DeWine to 48 percent for Brown. There are 9 percent undecided in this race. Last month, a Plain Dealer poll showed the candidates tied (45 percent for Brown to 43 percent for DeWine). In Montana, incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns is now in a virtual tie with Democratic challenger Jon Tester. Burns trails by a very narrow 43 percent to 46 percent margin, with 9 percent undecided. A Mason-Dixon/Lee Newspaper poll last month also showed Burns trailing (41 percent to 47 percent). In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker and Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. are still in a virtual tie, 45 percent for Corker to 43 percent for Ford, with 9 percent still undecided. In late September, a Mason-Dixon poll for the Memphis Commercial Appeal/Chattanooga Free Press showed Ford with 43 percent and Corker with 42 percent.

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And in another Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll, the race is still close, with incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen struggling to win a seat that was once thought to be a “sure thing” for Republicans. Allen is slightly better off in this poll, with 47 percent, while Democrat Jim Webb remains at 43 percent. Undecided voters have dropped to 8 percent. This compares to a 43 percent-to-43 percent tie in late September.

In all, these key Senate races show the following:

• Two Republican incumbents in very serious trouble, Santorum and DeWine.
• One Republican incumbent trailing his challenger, Chafee.
• Three Republican incumbents virtually tied with their challengers, Allen, Burns and Talent.
• One Democratic incumbent tied with his challenger, Menendez.
• One Democratic incumbent with a real lead, Cantwell.
• One Republican open seat with a tie, Tennessee.

The results show that the Democrats have a slightly better chance of gaining control of the Senate than they did a month ago. However, as the election approaches, Democrats may have to lead by significant amounts to counteract the well-funded Republican get-out-the-vote effort. And Democrats need to hold their seats and win six of the seven hotly contested races to gain control. In most of the races, the number of undecided voters has decreased to less than 10 percent.