MSNBC.com

'Print this'sponsored by

Oct. 21, 2006 - If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.

If something doesn’t give—and quick—Republicans will view 2004 as the good ol’ days. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the new NEWSWEEK poll say they would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. That’s not surprising; the Democrats have been leading in the opinion polls for months. But the new poll suggests—from the leanings of bellwether voting blocs to voters’ priorities—that a possible Republican loss could turn into a rout.

Take white Catholics, swing voters who went for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election. This time 44 percent of them plan to vote Democrat versus 42 percent who plan to vote Republican. Among independents, 44 percent support the Democrat in their district, while 34 percent support the Republican. And voters have more faith in the Democrats to handle almost every major issue presented in the poll, which was conducted on Thursday and Friday nights through phone interviews with 1,000 adults: from Iraq (46 to 34), to the economy (50 to 35), to federal spending (52 to 29), to health care (57 to 24).

But Democrats shouldn’t start measuring for the drapes in the Speaker’s Office just yet. Compared to the NEWSWEEK poll two weeks ago, taken in the aftermath of the Mark Foley Congressional page scandal, the Republicans seem to be closing the issues gap—at least on the issues where they have traditionally enjoyed greater voter trust than the Democrats. The Oct. 5 and 6 poll gave Democrats a lead on moral values (42 to 36), a stunning reversal of every previous poll. While Republicans have not retaken their lead on the issue, they have stopped their slide. In the new poll, 41 percent of Americans say they trust the Democrats more on values and 37 percent said they trusted the GOP more.

Likewise, on the war on terror, once President Bush’s signature issue. While Republicans have not restored their perennial lead over the Democrats, equal numbers of Americans trust each party more (40 percent for each.) Two weeks ago, the Democrats held a seven-point advantage. On immigration, 40 percent trust the Dems more, while 34 percent trust the GOP more. Two weeks ago the Democrats held a nine-point lead on that issue.

That’s a good omen for Republicans as the race enters the home stretch and as the Republican National Committee launches ads designed to highlight the terrorism issue and to paint the Democrats as weak on Osama bin Laden. The poll shows that if Republicans can turn voters’ attention to national security, they could hold off, or at least hold down, a Democratic blitz come Nov. 7.

But the Republicans have a lot of work to do. Right now voters don’t rate the issues where they are most competitive with the Dems as priorities. The poll found terrorism came fourth as the “most important” issue to voters, at just 13 percent; behind Iraq (31 percent), the economy (18 percent), and health care (16 percent). And a solid majority of Americans want the Democrats to take over Capital Hill, 55 percent, versus 32 percent who want the GOP to retain control—a 23-point margin. And the Republicans can’t count on their biggest name, George W. Bush, to help much. While the new poll shows the president with a two-point bump in his approval rating—from an all-time low of 33 percent two weeks ago to 35 percent today—most Americans think Bush is already a lame duck. Fifty-six percent said he won’t be able to get much done in his last two years in office. Only 33 percent believe he can be effective.

Most worrisome for the president, should the Democrats retake one or both houses of Congress, the American public supports their proposed “First 100 Hours” agenda. An overwhelming majority says allowing the government to negotiate lower drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies should be a top priority for a Democratic Congress (74 percent, including 70 percent of Republicans); 68 percent want increasing the minimum wage to be a top priority, including 53 percent of Republicans; 62 percent want investigating impropriety by members of Congress to be a top priority; and 58 percent want investigating government contracts in Iraq to be a top priority. Fifty-two percent say investigating why we went to war in Iraq should be a top priority (25 percent say it should a lower priority and 19 percent say it shouldn’t be done.)

Other parts of a potential Democratic agenda receive less support, especially calls to impeach Bush: 47 percent of Democrats say that should be a “top priority,” but only 28 percent of all Americans say it should be, 23 percent say it should be a lower priority and nearly half, 44 percent, say it should not be done. (Five percent of Republicans say it should be a top priority and 15 percent of Republicans say it should be a lower priority; 78 percent oppose impeachment.) Rolling back some of the Bush tax cuts would be contentious too: 38 percent of Americans say the Dems should make that a top priority; 28 percent say it should be a lower priority; and 28 percent say it shouldn’t be done at all.

The NEWSWEEK poll, conducted Oct. 19-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In conducting the poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,000 adults aged 18 and older.