MTP Transcript for Oct. 22

MR. NOVAK: That’s right. Those, those three, three states are, are extremely close and I would say right now, in all three of those, I would give the edge right now to the, to the Republicans. I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it. I, I think very—New Jersey’s very interesting because Menendez has proved a very poor candidate, a very unstable candidate. And if he can survive, appointed senator in that state against Tom Kean Jr., that, that will mean this is really some Republican—some Democratic year.

MR. HARWOOD: In all three of those states, one of the key dynamics is the rural turnout vs. the big city turnout. And in Tennessee, is there a hidden white vote against an African-American candidate?

MR. RUSSERT: David Broder, if the Democrats ever won six seats, which would mean control of the Senate, but then lost New Jersey, how would they feel that Wednesday morning?

MR. BRODER: They would be very upset with Governor Corzine for the choice that he had made on the appointment of that—of his successor.

MR. RUSSERT: Charlie Cook, you scrubbed these states, these numbers. Looking at those seven Senate seats, tell us about them.

MR. COOK: Well, I think Pennsylvania, Santorum; Mike DeWine, Ohio; boy, they’re just way, way, way, way, way down. Boy, it’s really hard to see them, them make it up. Burns, I think Burns is going to lose, but the margin isn’t nearly as wide as the first two. Chafee, that’s—it’s closer, but Chafee is behind. You know, I think it’s more likely than not Democrats pick up that one. That gets you to four.

And next is—OK, what happens next. Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, gosh, it’s, it’s really close. Maybe McCaskill ahead a tiny bit more than behind, but it’s close. Then as John said, those rural areas help—how bad—how far are they going to go for Republicans. Tennessee, absolutely right. I mean, Ford’s been ahead, but it’s been closing. Corker pulling up. Virginia, George Allen is up a little bit, but I think if a feather landed on his head, it’d probably knock him out. And New Jersey, two weeks ago, I thought Kean, the Republican, was going to win. Now, Menendez has pulled back up and Republicans don’t have the money, ironically, to, to spend to really compete in New Jersey.

MR. RUSSERT: John Harwood, when a party takes control of the House, the historical pattern is they also take control of the Senate, when there’s a switch. Do you see something of that magnitude?

MR. HARWOOD: Well, it’s certainly possible. And one of the things that we’ve discussed before is that when you have a big wave election, you know, you’ve got a whole bunch of close races. And how do you, how do you calculate how many are going to go to one side or the other? But in a wave election, a lot of them just fall on the same side. So that certainly could happen for the Democrats.

MR. RUSSERT: David Broder, before we go, you just heard Senator Barack Obama, who nine months ago said, “I will not seek the presidency or vice presidency.” And today, he rather candidly said, “Well, that’s what I believed then and I may be changing my mind.” What’s your take on that?

MR. BRODER: He’s under a lot of pressure and is riding a wave of his own in terms of publicity, to jump in. It would be a big gamble for him because his potential is so huge and he is, at this point, pretty green in terms of experience. Lacks any executive experience. Never has had to sit in a job where he was the single decision maker, as a president is. But he is an enormously attractive candidate and I thought he handled it—you very well this morning.

MR. NOVAK: Certainly, Tim, I, I took that as an announcement of possible candidacy that was, that was making news on, on MEET THE PRESS. I think he’s a very attractive personality, but I think the fact that everybody’s so excited about him, and everybody’s writing about him, indicates there’s a lot of vote—of Democratic resistance to Hillary Clinton and the whole field that we have. Because I have seen the candidates who have really been inspirational candidates with their rhetoric: John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton. And talk about a loser from Illinois, Adlai Stevenson. I don’t see this in a Barack Obama; I don’t see much humor, I don’t see much irony. I’m not yet convinced that that—this is the answer to, to a Democratic victory.

MR. HARWOOD: Tim...

MR. RUSSERT: Voters seem more...

MR. HARWOOD: ...I talked to a former top aide to Bill Clinton last night who said Barack Obama will run in 2008, Hillary Clinton will not. So we’ll see what happens there.

MR. RUSSERT: Hillary Clinton will not?

MR. HARWOOD: That was his prediction.

MR. RUSSERT: But when you look at American voting behavior, Charlie Cook, we seem to like governors: Bush, Clinton, Carter, Reagan. The last sitting United States senator was John Kennedy, who was also criticized for not having executive experience.

MR. COOK: And Warren G. Harding before that. So that...

MR. RUSSERT: And, and, and Garfield before that.

MR. COOK: Yeah. He beat me. Well, New York guy.

MR. NOVAK: He was a House member.

MR. RUSSERT: He was a House member, he was a House member...(unintelligible).

MR. COOK: New York guy.

It’s, it’s—the thing is, I agree with, with, with, with everything David said, but the thing is, it’s too soon. He’s not—but when you’ve got the hot hand, when you’re the hot hand, how do you not run? You can’t have a hot hand for six years, 10 years.

MR. RUSSERT: We’ll be watching. Charlie Cook, John Harwood, David Broder, Robert Novak, thank you all. And we’ll be right back with more of MEET THE PRESS, after this.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: Two days from now, this coming Tuesday, MSNBC continues its full coverage of the 2006 election campaign, nonstop coverage all day and all night long. And here, next Sunday, we’ll continue our meet the Senate Debate series: Maryland. Democrat Ben Cardin vs. Republican Michael Steele. Cardin vs. Steele, the Maryland U.S. Senate seat at stake.

That’s all for today. We’ll be back next week. If it’s Sunday, it’s MEET THE PRESS.

MORE FROM MEET THE PRESS

Meet the Press Section Front

Nov. 8: Casey, Barbour, Rendell, roundtable, Brokaw Nov. 1: Tim Geithner, David Plouffe, roundtable Oct. 25: Cornyn, Schumer, Burnett, Sorkin, roundtable Oct. 18: Jarrett, Dodd, Kyl, Shriver, Podesta Oct. 11: Levin, Graham, McCaffrey, Myers, roundtable Oct. 4: Ambassador Susan Rice, roundtable Sept. 27: Bill Clinton, Paterson, Kyl, Webb Sept. 20: President Obama, Sen. Graham, Rep. Boehner, roundtable Sept. 13: Durbin, Cornyn, Dean, Gingrich, roundtable Sept. 6: Axelrod, roundtable Meet the Press Section Front   Add Meet the Press headlines to your news reader: