MTP Transcript for Oct. 22

MR. RUSSERT: Let me show this article from The Washington Post. “Most worrisome to the White House is the subpoena power that Democrats would gain with a majority in the House or Senate. For years, Republicans have been mostly deferential in scrutinizing the Bush administration, but Democrats are eager to reexamine an array of issues, such as Vice President Cheney’s energy task force, the Jack Abramoff scandal and preparations for the Iraq war.” Cover of Newsweek, “The GOP Running Scared. Would a Democratic majority go wild or govern from the middle?” Bob Novak:

MR. NOVAK: There’s going to be a subpoena onslaught, which may or may not be politically beneficial. I have never found in my, in my time in Washington that these congressional investigations are that effective. I, I know that in six years of, of investigating everything possible in the Clinton administration, the Republican Congress was not all that effective.

Tim, let me say this, that all politicians always say, “This is the most important election we’ve ever been in” because it is to them. I would make the argument, this is one of the least important elections I have seen because everybody is really looking ahead at 2008 as an important election. Because if the Democrats win the House, as is, as is probable, then it’s—they, they can pass a lot of legislation, get nowhere in the Senate. Senate is a very difficult thing to get through. And the president will suddenly discover his veto pen that he had—that he had kept—lost track of for six years.

So I don’t think much is going to happen, substantively. It is a nice, it’s a, it’s a thing for Nancy Pelosi to be speaker of the House, but I don’t think there’s going to be much action out of it.

MR. RUSSERT: Ms. Pelosi tells Newsweek the Capitol is not going to be a courthouse, that she has a real agenda. But David, do you think this is an important election?

MR. BRODER: It’s a very important election in a couple of ways. One, because of the pressure that a Democratic victory in either House will put on the administration to change policy in Iraq. I would think it’d be very difficult for the president to continue straightforward, to keep Don Rumsfeld in the—as secretary of defense with a partially Democratic Congress.

Secondly, I think there is a chance—maybe I’m being Pollyannaish—that because the people running this fall have heard so many complaints from their constituents about the gridlock and the partisanship in Congress, that the whole atmosphere in this next Congress may be different.

MR. RUSSERT: Bob Novak, you wrote this in your Political Report on Wednesday and I’ll use it to frame our discussion here about what’s going to happen in two weeks. And here’s the Evans-Novak Political Report: “With hopes of the late comeback faded, the Republican strategy has changed from that of a quarterback on a fourth-quarter come-from-behind mission to that of an overwhelmed emergency medical technician performing triage on several dying patients. The only thought now is to minimize losses by plugging whatever holes can be plugged. Late decisions have to be made about who lives and who dies. The GOP has to decide where it can win, and it cannot afford to waste time or resources on those who cannot be saved. At this point, the best indication of how races are going is where the money is being spent.

“If the election were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives.” Twenty seats. Your Darwinian theory there all set aside, you stand by that?

MR. NOVAK: As of today. There’s always a possibility of a wave coming through and, and really getting higher than 20 seats, but...

MR. RUSSERT: Could it be lower?

MR. NOVAK: It could be lower, too, as some of those races are very close.

The money, the money situation of saving the people who are in bad shape. Tom Reynolds, the House Republican campaign chairman, had in one poll fallen back by 15 or 16 points, and the Republican National Committee has now instituted a independent expenditure—I love that, “independent expenditure,” by the Republican National Committee—television ads saying his opponent is a protectionist, which would mean higher prices. But that’s an example of making a rescue mission on somebody that, two weeks ago or a month ago, they never thought was—before the Foley scandal, was even in trouble.

MR. RUSSERT: And they made him the point man for the recovery from the power outages and the snowstorm in terms of federal assistance.

Charlie Cook, Mr. Novak’s on your turf here. What do you think? Democrats win seats, lose seats, what happens?

MR. COOK: Well, first, Bob was on this turf a long time before me. But I think we start at 20. I mean, I mean, look, 16 days, obviously, everything could change. I think it’s at least 20 in the House. I think it’s more 25, 30, 35. It, it could go, this could get bad, particularly if Republican turnout really drops.

MR. RUSSERT: They need 15 to take control.

MR. COOK: They need 15, and I think 20 is the starting point, unless something big happens. And voter turnout, I mean, Republican voters right now are depressed. And Democrats are spitting nails. And, wow, that’s—if Repub—I mean, when you see these wave election, midterm elections, it’s when one side’s voters are energized and the other side’s are disillusioned.

MR. HARWOOD: And Tim, we saw on our Journal/NBC poll, when you ask “How interested are you in the election? How enthusiastic are you about voting?” We show a significant advantage for Democrats.

But let me tell you, I talked to a couple of top Bush advisers yesterday who said, “Your way of measuring is wrong, that if you look at our metrics for the number of volunteers we have, the number of contacts we’re making, we are doing much better than you think.” So that’s going to be a, a test on Election Day. And let’s don’t forget: A lot of the people now predicting big Republican losses here, were predicting that George Bush was going to lose, and the Bush team was right about that.

MR. RUSSERT: What’s your gut tell you?

MR. HARWOOD: My gut tells me 20 is about right, and that in the Senate, maybe five seats for the Democrats, and you end up with 50/50.

MR. RUSSERT: David:

MR. BRODER: I think our friends are absolutely on, on, on target. If, if they’re wrong, I think it would be underestimating this wave, not overestimating it.

MR. NOVAK: The...

MR. RUSSERT: Let me just...

MR. NOVAK: I’m sorry. The Senate’s a little harder to call.

MR. RUSSERT: Let’s just try that. I’m going to run through some of the Senate races and, we’ll—then we’ll come back and talk. Here’s Montana: Republican candidate Conrad Burns vs. Democrat Jon Tester. Tester has been ahead.

Let’s look at Pennsylvania. Rick Santorum is the incumbent, Democratic challenger Bob Casey. Casey has been ahead.

Let’s look at Ohio. Mike DeWine, the Republican incumbent; Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger. Brown has been ahead.

And we look at Rhode Island. Lincoln Chafee, the Republican who won his primary handily, is behind Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democrat.

Missouri: Jim Talent, the Republican; Claire McCaskill, the Democrat. Very tight race.

Tennessee: Bob Corker, the Republican; Harold Ford, the Democrat. Very tight race.

Virginia: George Allen, the Republican; Jim Webb, the Democrat. Very tight race.

Then two states held by the Democrats. All those other ones were held by Republicans. New Jersey: Bob Menendez, the Democrat; Tom Kean, a tight race.

Maryland: Ben Cardin, the Democrat; Michael Steele, the Republican lieutenant governor. Cardin’s been ahead, but closer than many people expected.

Bob Novak, in those seven key races, the Democrats are either tied or ahead. Is that a pretty good indication, do you think, of where we are 16 days out?

MR. NOVAK: I think so. I think the first four you mentioned look to be locks for—not locks but highly probable—for the Democrats. That’s four seats, not enough to take control.

MR. RUSSERT: They need six.

MR. NOVAK: They need six. The, the races that really are, are quite competitive and decisive will be Tennessee, Virginia...

MR. RUSSERT: And Missouri.

MR. NOVAK: ...and Missouri.

MR. RUSSERT: And if they won all those, it’d be seven.

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