Bob Neumeier

Playing favorites in thoroughbred horse racing is like diving into a heaping plate of fried clams with tartar sauce — it tastes so good, yet you know its ultimately poisonous for your health. Fans with even the most basic knowledge of the game must realize that financial ruin awaits those that simply bet on “the chalk” or the public’s pick in every race. The favored horses win approximately 33 percent of the time on national average throughout the country, but the return of those winners will never equal the payout. It’s a losing proposition.

But what if I said, limit those wagers to the very best horses in the world running for millions of dollars in purse money.

If I could guarantee you 40 percent winners (well over the 33 percent average), do you think you could turn a profit? Quit your day job? Spend six months a year in St. Tropez, France? Drive a Lamborghini? And laugh all the way to the nearest bank with your pari-mutuel profits on guaranteed 40 percent winners?

Well, here’s some good advice:

Don’t quit that day job.

And when the Breeders Cup Thoroughbred Championships come rolling around at Churchill Downs on Nov. 4, stay away from playing the favorites unless you enjoy burning your hard-earned cash.

That will be mighty difficult, for this year’s lineup would appear to be top loaded with “heavy chalk” — horses that appear to be invincible based on gaudy past performances.

Take Bernardini in the BC Classic. All he has done is win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (seven lengths), Travers Stakes (seven lengths), Jim Dandy (nine lengths), Preakness Stakes (five lengths), and the Withers Stakes (four lengths) in an amazing 6-race run of absolute brilliance that could be enough for 2006 Horse of the Year.

Now that we have the unbeatable Bernardini, why not go for Fleet Indian in the Distaff? All this 5-year-old mare has done is rip off six-for-six this season in the midst of an eight-race winning skein for America’s top trainer Todd Pletcher.

Now that we are on a roll, look at the 3-year-old Henny Hughes in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Since his debut at six furlongs this season, he’s galloped home in front by 10, five and three lengths in an awesome display of Bonneville Salt Flats speed.

Sticking with Pletcher, have you seen his filly Wait a While cavort around on the grass? Since she put her toes on the lawn for the first time, this filly is three-for-three, showcasing a turn of foot not seen since the legendary days of Pebbles back in the 1980’s. Ouija Board or no Ouija Board, this horse looks unbeatable in the Filly & Mare Turf Division.

While we are on the subject of turf races, did you see the incredible race won by George Washington in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at a mile in Europe? Ran a 132 Timeform rating by Euro speed analysts. That’s off the charts in any speed figure discussion and with it, stone-cold favoritism if the connections decide to run in the BC Mile.

What a parlay!

Bernardini, Fleet Indian, Henny Hughes, Wait a While, and George Washington all wrapped up into a tidy Breeders’ Cup winning package.

It looks just that simple.

But as good as these horses appear to be on paper, they are a losing proposition. Since the debut of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, 93 horses have gone to the post (discounting multiple entries) at odds of less than $1.90 on the dollar ... prohibitive favorites. Thirty-eight of those horses won their respective races for a 40 percent winning ratio, again far and above the 33 percent national average.

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If you had placed a $2 dollar bet on all BC favorites,  it would cost you $186 bucks (93 X 2).

For your 38 winners, your return would be $161.20, or about 86 percent of your original investment.

You’re a L-O-S-E-R.

At 40 percent win ratio in Breeders’ Cup Races.

So forget St. Tropez. Don’t bother with the Lamborghini and please don’t quit your day job. To turn a profit on Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs, let the suckers bet on the chalk.

Find the longshots.

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