Nuclear test ruptures China-North Korea ties

Fearful of the unknown
China, at the same time, remains fearful of a collapse of Kim Jong-Il’s regime and the disruption a flood of refugees would cause in northern China. For this reason the Chinese have been hesitant to support international sanctions that could cause the collapse of the regime.

And even if the Chinese decide to cut economic aid to the isolated regime to show disapproval towards Kim’s actions, it won’t make a difference, suggested Yan. (China provides an estimated 70 percent of North Korea’s fuel and 40 percent of food aid, providing crucial support for the continued survival of the reclusive regime.)

“When North Korea made the decision to carry out the nuclear test, they were already prepared [for the reality] that China could cut economic aid to them,” he said.

Regional balance
Another issue for this Chinese is that a nuclear North Korea may scare other regional powers — such as South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan — into starting their own nuclear programs, igniting an arms race that could destabilize the region.

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Most important, the nuclear test by North Korea creates an unfavorable strategic situation for the Chinese, who have been hoping to avoid the militarization of other regional powers and further U.S. military involvement in the Far East.

“Japan and the U.S. are not very despondent with this; [rather, they are] happy to see North Korea carry out this nuclear test,” argued Yan. “This will give these two countries the legitimacy to deploy more troops here, to deploy anti-missile defense systems, and also, especially for Japan, they can revise their constitution to write in the right of war and also to modernize its military.”

In fact, new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — a strong critic of North Korea — has actively discussed amending Japan’s constitution to allow greater freedom for Japan’s military in international affairs. The Chinese, still with strong memories of Japanese aggression in the World War II era, are anxious about any re-emergence of Japanese nationalism or militarism.

End of an era
For Yan and many Chinese, as well, are personal emotions tied up with the possible break-up of the 50-year alliance with a country for which China has made considerable sacrifices. 

“I feel great regrets for those many Chinese who fought for the liberation of North Korea,” said Yan, referring to China’s participation in the Korean War of the 1950s.

But there should be not confusion about China’s resolve with North Korea, he said.  “If North Korea takes the policy to purposely provoke troubles at the border, I don’t think China will tolerate that. China will take the necessary response to that provocative action,” he warned.

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