Evangelical Hispanics turning away from GOP

Outrage over caucus web site
The caucus Web site has outraged many Hispanics by spotlighting dangers supposedly posed by illegal immigration: "Sister Helen Chaska was murdered in late summer 2002 by being strangled with her rosary beads -- the beads were found imbedded in her neck. She was also raped.... Her accused murderer is Maximiliano Esparza, who is in the United States illegally"; "2 in 3 U.S. Teens Snubbed for Summer Jobs in Favor of Cheap Immigrant Labor"; "The Kissing Bug (Vinchuca) attacks a person in the face while he or she is asleep by 'kissing' them in the fold of the cheek. Within time, the parasite races into the bloodstream to destroy the heart and other organs.... It kills 50,000 people per year south of the border"; "Experts Fear Open Immigration Could Result in Tuberculosis Plague in the United States."

Hispanics have responded to the caucus's success in the House by taking to the streets to protest -- 500,000 strong in Los Angeles, 300,000 in Chicago, 50,000 in Denver, 20,000 in Phoenix.

Liberal, pro-Democratic groups moved quickly to capitalize on the outpouring of opposition to the GOP bill. We Are America, an alliance of immigrant-advocacy groups and such unions as UNITE HERE and the Service Employees International Union, was organized to register naturalized citizens. The alliance's efforts are based, in part, on the assumption that increased mobilization of Hispanics will help Democrats. A 2006 report [PDF] by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights contends that the "current Republican-led legislative attacks on immigrants and red-hot anti-immigrant demagoguery sparked the spring 2006 immigrant-rights marches.... They are also likely to drive increases in the registration and voting rates of U.S.-born children of immigrants. This could dramatically -- and negatively -- affect the outcome of the 2008 presidential election for the Republican Party, as well as Republican prospects in numerous state elections."

In a development equally foreboding for the GOP, at least in the near term, many Hispanic evangelical ministers are bitter about the direction of the House immigration debate. "The Republicans have dropped the ball.... If they lose this one [the Bush immigration plan], they might as well kiss the Hispanic vote goodbye for a long time," said Daniel de Leon, pastor of the 6,000-member Templo Calvario. De Leon has hosted a Spanish-language version of Pat Robertson's The 700 Club and is an outspoken opponent of abortion and gay marriage. During the Reagan administration, de Leon changed his registration from Democrat to Republican. In 2004, he appeared with Bush at events advocating amending the U.S. Constitution to ban same-sex marriage. Now de Leon says he intends to change his registration to "independent."

Latino religious leaders say they are particularly disturbed by the anti-Hispanic undertone of much of the Republican opposition to opening a path to legalization -- an undertone, they say, that has served to legitimize more explicitly derogatory comments. Manuel Rivera of the National Coalition, who says his organization represents 1,500 small Pentecostal churches, many of them storefront operations, attended hearings on proposed anti-immigrant ordinances in Riverside, N.J., and Hazelton, Pa. He's appalled by what he heard there: "Let's get rid of these people." "These people have destroyed our town; it's like a stain." He blames House Republicans for the proliferation of such rhetoric. "Due to their lack of responsibility, we are going through one of the worst scenarios in many cities of the United States," Rivera said. "It is a shame to see the animosity that members of Congress have created."

Animosity toward illegal immigrants strikes very close to home for Rivera. More than one-third of the members of his coalition's church are undocumented, he says, as are 17 percent of its pastors.

Party of Tancredo or Bush?
Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, said that as the immigration debate progresses, "we need to be clear: We don't know if the Republican Party is the party of Tancredo or the party of Bush.... Is the Republican Party anti-immigrant, is the Republican Party anti-Hispanic?"

At least three surveys of Hispanics -- by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, the partisan New Democrat Network, and the Republican-leaning Latino Coalition -- show significant Hispanic defections from the Republican Party. A Pew poll of 2,000 Hispanic adults conducted July 3-5 found that the percentage saying that discrimination is now a "major" problem has grown to 58 percent, up from 44 percent in 2002. Fifty-four percent say the immigration debate has worsened the problem of discrimination. From 2004 to 2005, the percentage favoring the Republicans on immigration fell from 25 percent to 16 percent, while those preferring the Democrats on immigration policy slipped from 39 percent to 35 percent. Roberto Suro, director of the Pew Hispanic Center, and Gabriel Escobar, associate director for publications, concluded that the Pew study "shows that Latinos to some extent are holding the Republican Party responsible for what they perceive to be the negative consequences of the immigration debate, but the political impact of that perception is uncertain."

In July, the New Democrat Network polled 600 Hispanics whose preference was to be interviewed in Spanish, not English. The survey found that both Bush and his party were viewed negatively: Bush's favorable/unfavorable ratings were 38 percent/58 percent, while the GOP's were 41 percent/51 percent. The Democratic Party was viewed in a much better light: 65 percent favorable to 25 percent unfavorable. On the issue of immigration, these Hispanics preferred the Democratic Party over the GOP by 55 percent to 22 percent. Asked whether they would rather vote for a Republican or a Democrat, 59 percent said a Democrat and only 23 percent said a Republican. That contrasts with a 2004 poll indicating that Hispanics most comfortable answering in Spanish were almost evenly divided, 52 percent to 48 percent, between Kerry and Bush.

For Republicans, the most disturbing results were from the Latino Coalition survey conducted last December just as the House took up H.R. 4437. The survey looked at 2004 findings showing Bush ahead of Kerry among all Hispanic voters on who would do a better job "keeping America safe and fighting terrorism," even with Kerry on "being in touch with the Hispanic community," and trailing Kerry on jobs, health care, and education. The coalition then asked similar questions in 2005, giving respondents a choice between "Democrats in Congress" and "Republicans in Congress." In every case, congressional Republicans fell far short of Bush's numbers while Democrats matched or improved on Kerry's numbers.

"If the Republican leadership in Congress allows an extremist group to control the debate over immigration reform and put partisan rhetoric over real, commonsense legislation, the GOP will eliminate all the progress achieved by President Bush in attracting Hispanics into the GOP," said Latino Coalition President Robert Deposada.

Erosion for GOP among swing voters?
Matt Dowd, the architect of much of the Bush 2004 campaign strategy, warns that the House Republicans' aggressive approach to immigration endangers GOP control of the national policy agenda not only by alienating Hispanics who are conservative on most social issues but also by eroding the party's gains among white swing voters. "From my perspective, looking at all voters, the thing I am most concerned about is that the debate has to be two-handed. House Republican members are all talking about security without any compassion element. That is going to have a negative effect not only with Latino voters but with moderate suburban voters."

But evangelical Hispanic leaders like Cortes are focused not on how the House GOP's immigration legislation could affect the party's future but on how many Latino lives it could turn upside down. "The Republican Far Right," Cortes warns, "will... have to answer for their choice of framing the discussion and using the word 'amnesty' in a deceiving and untrue manner. People of faith understand the true meaning of 'amnesty': It is what Christ provides us. It is free and unconditional."

Cortes added, "A prominent lifelong Hispanic Republican, a clergyman from Orange County, California, who has a congregation of 6,000, said to me after a meeting with the RNC on immigration attended by over 50 of our most prominent Latino clergy, that for the first time in his life he is ashamed of being Republican."

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