Lebanese embargo reality check

What is Israel’s position on the blockade? 

On Tuesday, Kofi Annan expressed optimism that the embargo would be lifted in the next 48 hours. There are a lot of people who are waiting to see what in fact will happen. People have heard this before from the United Nations.

When Annan recently visited Beirut, there was word that the embargo would end within 48 hours. As it turned out, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rejected any notion of lifting the embargo at that time.

Israel’s reaction on Tuesday to Annan’s suggestion was similar, saying it will lift this embargo when it believes the pieces are in place — meaning the Lebanese forces and UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeepers — are in sufficient numbers to take over that blockade.

For the Israeli government this is an arms embargo and their position remains unchanged. There may be some developments, but people here are taking it with a grain of salt.

The Lebanese parliament is trying to keep pressure on the international community to halt the embargo — not only by maintaining this sit-in, which is getting some publicity — but also sending an official letter of protest to the U.N. Security Council.

What are the Israeli’s holding out for? Are they waiting for the return of the Israeli soldiers?

Olmert is clearly in a weakened position as a result of this war. He needs to get something from the Lebanese. He may have compromised his political future by prosecuting the war in what was perceived by many in Israel as a relatively moderate way. He is facing a tremendous amount of criticism by his public right now. In the polls, he’s never had worse numbers, his popularity has plummeted.

Obviously he wants the Israeli soldiers back and there is a sense that things are moving forward behind the scenes. Annan suggested on Monday that he could assist in the mediation on that issue, but it seems that we are still days or weeks away from a breakthrough there.

The more immediate issue is getting the Lebanese Army, Navy, and UNIFIL forces in place to take over the job of preventing arms shipments from getting in from Syria or from the sea to the hands of Hezbollah. That is Israel’s main concern. It’s doing the job now with a lot of aerial reconnaissance, drones are flying over this country all the time, which Lebanon considers violations of Resolution 1701 because they are penetrating Lebanese airspace. 

But Israel believes its doing the job and doing it well. They are less confident in the Lebanese Army and want to see a robust UNIFIL force doing that job at the borders, at the airport, at the seaport. 

Analysts say that we are more like 10 to 14 days away from Israel lifting the blockade — mainly because it will take that much time to get the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces up to sufficient numbers and in place to take over that job.

During the actual conflict, one huge issue was all of the displaced people who were fleeing the fighting. What has happened to all of those people?

According to the U.N. there are still about 250,000 displaced people, out of the million people who fled their homes during the conflict. So, three-quarters of the people have returned home, but another quarter of a million either can not return home because their homes have been destroyed or they are too fearful of a rekindling of fighting to go home.

Now, what you don’t see, despite those figures, is any kind of refugee camps. We have looked for them, we have asked about them, but have seen almost nothing.

About a week ago, we saw about 600 to 700 displaced Lebanese in three or four buildings just outside Sidon. We went back on Monday to film them, but they had already been absorbed by the local population. That is the Arab way — it is an amazing phenomenon.

Literally, 250,000 displaced people have been absorbed by Arab hospitality — by extended family, extended friends of family, extended tribes. So, you don’t see them, but the problem is still there.

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