Grappling with the al-Sadr problem

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Within the Shiite community, al-Sadr is clearly a dominant figure. His popularity among impoverished Shiites has eclipsed those of mainstream Shiite politicians. Even the country’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has been loathe to speak out publicly against al-Sadr.

Yet since the beginning of the U.S. mission in 2003, American officials have struggled to find a way to deal with him.

In 2004, U.S. authorities issued an arrest warrant accusing him of a role in the murder of a moderate cleric. That triggered two armed uprisings that ended when the Americans bowed to Shiite pressure and spared al-Sadr and shelved the arrest warrant.

Since then, al-Sadr has become a player. His movement controls 30 of the 275 seats in the national parliament and five Cabinet ministries, and his support was critical to al-Maliki winning the post of prime minister.

Name unmentionable for U.S. forces
Now, the U.S. military rarely mentions his name or his militia’s in connection with sectarian violence, even though U.S. officials say privately that the Mahdi Army is behind much of it. And Iraqi officials invariably speak of incidents involving “breakaway elements,” enabling al-Sadr to disavow responsibility for his followers’ actions.

Al-Sadr has described the Diwaniyah fighting as “individual acts that occurred without instructions” from him, according to one of his spokesmen, Sheik Mohammed Jamil.

In fact, it is unclear how much control al-Sadr does wield over the Mahdi militia, which appears to lack a cohesive command structure, and al-Sadr aides have complained about renegades.

Equally unclear are al-Sadr’s ties to Shiite-dominated Iran. U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad contends Iran has urged Shiite militias to fire mortars and rockets on the Green Zone and says splinter groups of the Mahdi Army are behind the attacks.

Others doubt al-Sadr, whose politics are strongly nationalistic, is beholden to the Iranians, who instead have directed most of their aid to mainstream Shiite parties. A recent study by the International Crisis Group think tank concluded that al-Sadr receives “at best, limited material support from Iran.”

“Learning the hard way, the U.S. and its allies have had to recognize the reality of the Sadrists’ strength,” the group wrote.

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