If there's no ‘wave,’ can Dems win the House?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

TIOGA, N.Y. - In a “wave” election the minority sweeps to power by winning dozens of House seats; the attributes of its candidates matter less than an irresistible national mood that demands change.

But what if this November’s election isn’t a wave?

Then the Democrats must rely on their candidates’ skills to pick up seats, one by one. Democrats need a net gain of 15 to win control of the House — and seats where Republicans are retiring, such as here in southwest New York State, are the best places make those inroads.

Here’s the cram course in logic for New York’s 24th congressional district, from which Republican Sherwood “Sherry” Boehlert is retiring after 23 years:

• Only a centrist such as Boehlert could hold this seat.
• Republican Ray Meier stands to the right of Boehlert on issues such as abortion and embryonic stem cell research.
• Therefore one should give the edge to Democratic candidate Michael Arcuri, who as Oneida County district attorney, doesn’t have a record of roll call votes on contentious issues, therefore can’t be pegged as a doctrinaire liberal.

Evenly matched in skills
Plausible logic, perhaps, but it doesn’t reckon with the personal strengths of the two opponents: Meier and Arcuri are credible candidates, about evenly matched in skills, with Meier a little more polished, perhaps because he has run for legislative office several times before, while Arcuri has been elected district attorney four times.

Meier served as Oneida County Executive from 1991 to 1996, before launching his career as a state senator.

In an ordinary year, Meier would seem a reasonable fit for this seat: he’s smooth, well-versed in the issues -- and President Bush carried the district with 53 percent in the 2004 election.

This race is one of Nov. 7’s true bellwethers – if Arcuri wins, then it will almost certainly be a very good night for Democrats from here in upstate New York all the way to Seattle.

While harshly criticizing Bush on Iraq, Arcuri seems to want to assure voters he isn’t too Democratic for a place that has elected a Republican for nearly a quarter of a century.

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“I’m a moderate,” Arcuri says. “I’m not here to run against George Bush,” adding, “I happen to disagree with a very large number of his polices.”

But he adds, “I’m going to be with the president when I believe that the president in the right place on the issues.”

Asked to identify one Bush stance that he does agree with, Arcuri supplies an answer that will sound odd to House Minority Leader Pelosi, Connecticut Democratic Senate candidate Ned Lamont, and other Bush critics: “I think the president’s policy with respect to North Korea, the way he has handed North Korea is well handled.”

Just like Boehlert?
The parrying between Arcuri and Meier sometimes seems to come down to: Who is more like Boehlert, or “WWBD” – What Would Boehlert Do?

“My positions are much closer to the district than Meier’s positions are. And Boehlert’s positions on many of the social issues are exactly the same as mine,” argues Arcuri. He has called himself a “Boehlert Democrat.”

“Temperamentally, we are very similar in the sense that neither of our careers has been marked by harsh partisanship,” Meier says of Boehlert. “We are both known as people who know how to reach across to the other party, fashion a solution to a problem, and meet in the middle to get something achieved.”

He adds, “I’m probably on some issues a little more conservative than Congressman Boehlert.” He supports more oil drilling in the United States, including within Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, an idea Boehlert opposes.

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