Transcript for Aug. 20

GEN. McCAFFREY: I’m not sure it’s the right question. First of all, they’re not available. The National Guard brigades—you know, we just had Lieutenant General Blum testifying, we had the chief staff of the Army testifying. The Army is $23 billion short, our equipment’s coming apart, we’re drafting 42-year-old grandmothers to be privates in the Army. I shouldn’t have said draft, asking for volunteers. So I don’t think the combat power is there in the Army and the Marine Corps to solve this problem militarily. We are a safety valve, we’re a peacekeeping mechanism, but the Iraqi security forces are going to have to pull this one together.

MR. GREGORY: And we talk about Iraqi security forces, and I mentioned earlier in the program Michael Gordon with The New York Times has just returned from Anbar Province being embedded with troops, and he writes the following about Iraqi troops: “Even at its best, the Iraqi military faces severe constraints. It has no helicopter-assault capability, indeed no air force to speak of. It mostly relies on the Americans for medical care and reconnaissance. And it has no tradition of entrusting its sergeants and other noncommissioned officers with important responsibilities. ...

“What I saw in more than three weeks in Anbar Province,” western Iraq, “was not reassuring. Dogged efforts were being undercut by a dysfunctional Iraqi bureaucracy in Baghdad. ... Iraq’s Ministry of Defense has been slow to issue promotions for the new soldiers and to distribute proper pay. A goodly number of the Iraqi soldiers have voted with their feet and gone AWOL. ...

“What kind of exit strategy is this when Iraqi soldiers in some of Iraq’s most contested areas have been leaving faster than the Americans?” What kind of exit strategy?

GEN. McCAFFREY: Well, first of all, it’s miserably underresourced, which—a shortcoming I’ve articulated over on the Hill now and to the administration.  These Iraqi security battalions have 20, 30 light trucks, light automatic weapons. There’s no plan to build a force which would be capable of, of replacing us. So I think our strategy is flawed. Lieutenant General Marty Dempsey and Joe Peterson, the people on the ground, are doing a great job recruiting, training, fielding, but—and so far the Iraqi security forces have not come apart. We haven’t seen them go to the streets and battle with each other. But I think this is, this is an inadequate strategy right now to prepare the Iraqis to defend themselves.

MR. GREGORY: And yet, John Harwood, politically speaking, an exit strategy is critical for this White House and indeed, for Republicans this year. And yet that exit strategy may not be available to them in terms of getting troops back in sizeable numbers.

MR. JOHN HARWOOD: You know, a lot of Republicans at the beginning of the year counted on some of these benchmarks being met and then troops being able to come home, the elections earlier this year. That simply hasn’t happened.  Hasn’t changed public opinion, hasn’t, evidently, changed the situation on the ground in a positive way. Neither has the death of Zarqawi.

And what we’ve seen over the last few weeks is as this sectarian violence has increased in Baghdad, caused the president to change his strategy, we’ve seen some subtle shifts within the two parties. Democrats becoming more united.  You saw Ned Lamont’s victory in Connecticut. That has, you know, Republicans are using that as an emblem of division among Democrats, but actually there’s increasing division among Republicans, and it really turns on this question of are we moving into a civil war? That statement that you read earlier in the program from Senator Warner, very, very significant. If this war becomes perceived as a civil conflict, that’s when you see, according to some of the experts who look at public opinion, that’s when you could see the bottom drop out in terms of public support. It hasn’t happened yet. You know, the public is pessimistic, David, but they—if you ask them should we get out in an immediate and orderly way, in our Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, two-thirds of the American people say no. They’re still hanging in. They’re taking the attitude that we can’t just leave.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.

MR. HARWOOD: But if this becomes perceived as a civil war, that could change in a hurry.

MR. GREGORY: Will the public at large penalize the likes of Senator McCain, who’s not up for re-election this year, but is a contender for 2008, for still being so supportive of the president and his team in this war?

MR. HARWOOD: Well, they could, but I think this war is seen uniquely as George W. Bush’s war, and so even someone who supported the president will be judged on their own, I believe, in the end. But the—right now, the Iraq war and President Bush’s leadership of it has taken a toll on Republican candidates.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.

MR. HARWOOD: That’s why the mood is so negative in the country right now.  It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to translate in a lot of individual races, but it’s hurting the party across the board.

MR. GREGORY: Dr. Vali Nasr, let’s talk a little bit more broadly about the Shia revival, that is, of course, the title of your book. You talk particularly about Iran...

DR. NASR: Mm-hmm.

MR. GREGORY: ...exploiting the fact that the Sunni wall has been taken down from all around its borders from Iraq and in Afghanistan. What are the consequences, then, of this broader Shia revival?

DR. NASR: Well, we’re seeing it reflected in the current war in Lebanon, where Iran essentially came to the floor as a major power broker holding most of the cards, and we saw that our traditional allies in the region were, were marginalized. What we’re seeing at this time period is, as conflicts are occurring in Iraq and in, in Lebanon, the major patron of the Shia side in this Iran is becoming increasingly a regional power. It’s able to assert its position in Lebanon, in Iraq. It has claims of, of influence in these places.  And also it wants the international community to recognize its nuclear program and accord it its influence in the region.

MR. HARWOOD: And you know, David, there’s a domestic political ramification potentially from what’s going on in Lebanon, too, which is reinforcing the idea that our side can’t win so easily militarily. You know, Israel thought in a couple of weeks it was going to be able to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah. That didn’t happen. And people saw that happening, saw that thing dragging on inconclusively. The president and his team argue that it was a defeat for Hezbollah.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.

MR. HARWOOD: I’m not sure the American people are going to see it that way.

MR. GREGORY: And, general, the potential threat from Iran and its greater role as a regional player, what is the fear of the government at this stage about that potential impact?

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