Bush is a dominating factor in midterms

Mark Murray Deputy political director

WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush has now settled into his shorter-than-usual August vacation at his ranch in Crawford, Tex., more than a thousand miles away from Washington and the campaign trail. But if he looks far enough -- or just clicks open his Internet browser -- he'll notice that his presence seems to be everywhere on this year's midterm map.

In upstate New York, for example, the Democratic challenger to Republican congressman John Sweeney concludes in a current television ad: "And I will stand up to the president and say that we need a new direction in this country and in Iraq."

In the red state of Indiana, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running a radio ad against GOP congressman Chris Chocola, which features a Bush impersonator who says: "You know Chocola, the tax cuts you voted for big oil and gas ... I appreciate it."

Even in the heavily scrutinized Democratic Senate primary in Connecticut that takes place on Tuesday, challenger Ned Lamont has used Bush as a way to bludgeon his opponent, Sen. Joe Lieberman. "Joe Lieberman may say he represents us," says one of Lamont's TV ads showing Lieberman morphing into Bush, "but if it talks like George W. Bush and acts like George W. Bush, it's certainly not a Connecticut Democrat." 

President's popularity factor
With the November midterm elections taking place three months from now, Bush clearly has become one of the dominant themes in Senate and House races across the country. And that shouldn't be too surprising.

"Inevitably, a midterm election is going to be a referendum on the popularity of the president," says Marshall Wittmann, a former Republican political analyst who's now a senior fellow at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

But unlike in the 2002 midterms, when Bush was sky-high in the polls 13 months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and when Republicans and Democrats alike praised the president in their TV ads, his image now has become an asset to his political enemies and a liability to his friends. In fact, hardly any Republican candidates in competitive contests this fall have used Bush in their advertising -- and if they have, it has been to distance themselves from him.

Much of this can be attributed to the president's current political standing. According to the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Bush's approval rating is just 39 percent -- a steep drop from the 63 percent rating he had on the eve of the 2002 election, or the 49 percent he had before his 2004 re-election contest.

Recent NBC/WSJ Polls July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

Also in the latest NBC/Journal poll, registered voters -- by nearly a 2-to-1 margin -- say their vote will be a signal of opposition to Bush instead of support. "The Democrats want the election to be about George Bush, his performance in office, and the direction of the country," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Pluses and minuses
Bush, of course, still has been a benefit to his party. So far this election cycle, he has made 50 different campaign visits on behalf of Republican candidates, and has helped them raise a staggering $160 million. "The President's dance card is nowhere as big as the list" of candidates who have asked him to come raise money or campaign for them, explains Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman.

Moreover, automated telephone calls from Bush and his wife played an important role in an incumbent GOP congressman from Utah winning his contentious primary -- over the thorny issue of illegal immigration -- earlier this summer.

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