How would Raul Castro govern?

Raul and the U.S.
As for dealings with the U.S., Raul Castro as defense minister is as hardline as his brother, but he often makes Miami Cubans as the enemy.  In 1996, for example, at a time of great tension following the shootdown of the Brothers to the Rescue planes, Raul Castro blamed the Miami Cubans, not the U.S., saying "Some sinister groups are trying to lead Cuba and the United States into a major conflict whose consequences are unpredictable... We suspect that the tension between the two countries — which has reached very dangerous levels over the past few months — constitutes the tip of a filthy, political, conspiratorial iceberg directed not only against Cuba but mainly against the most liberal and advanced ideas of that great nation."

And it has been Raul Castro that has managed the relationship between Cuba and America's two biggest adversaries: Russia and China.

"He made the missile deal with Khrushkhev, although with very specific instructions [from Fidel]," said one official. "He traveled secretly to Moscow in 1980 when Brezhnev told him to forget any military support in case of an invasion. He also visited Africa — Ethiopia, Angola —before the Angola business. He is a true believer in the U.S. threat to Cuba ... On the other hand, he has said that in the event of war with the U.S., there will be no attack on the U.S. mainland and that the Cubans would permit the evacuation of dependents from Guantanamo as long as there was no attack on Cuba would begin from Guantanamo."

Still, say U.S. officials, the more likely scenario is not war between the U.S. and Cuba, but tension that wavers between high and low, with unexpected developments like the Brothers to the Rescue shootdown and the Elian Gonzalez saga making life miserable for those among them who must try to manage a difficult relationship.

If Fidel Castro should fully exit the world stage, that of course would be the most dramatic event in U.S.-Cuban relations since the Cuban missile crisis.  But no one thinks that is about to happen.

"His father lived 'til age 84, his mother til age 92 and that all of his siblings, including an older brother and sister, are still alive and healthy." said one, adding that Raul Castro shares the same gene pool.

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