Ron Borges

The Colts won their usual 14 games in the regular season, then had a pratfall in the playoffs, losing to the wild-card Steelers on their home turf on another dismal day for the offense. Indianapolis is a league best 48-16 over the past four years, yet questions abound because of the loss in free agency of running back Edgerrin James and the aging of wide receiver Marvin Harrison.

Harrison, James and Peyton Manning made up the Triplets, three of those most productive players in the league for the past half decade, but James has trotted off to Arizona and Harrison is 34, so things have begun to change in Hoosierville. That is the first thing coach Tony Dungy has to deal with this season: the lingering sense that the Colts have slipped.

Dungy disagrees, feeling he has adequate replacements for James, who rushed for 1,506 yards, caught 44 passes for another 337 and scored 14 touchdowns. That's a lot of production to lose even if you were the second-highest scoring team in the league, but it might be the least of the team's problems unless Dominic Rhodes and No. 1 pick Joseph Addai fail to deliver.

Harrison has been a Pro Bowl player for seven seasons, but Reggie Wayne may be the Colts' leading receiver. Certainly he was a year ago but only technically speaking. Wayne led the Colts with 83 receptions to Harrison's 82, but Harrison had more yards, 1,146 to 1055, and scored more than twice as many touchdowns (12 to five). Can Harrison put up those numbers again without James forcing defenses to respect the run and with more balls probably headed in Wayne's direction?

The larger issue might be on defense, however, where the Colts lost their best linebacker, David Thornton, as well as undersized but reliable defensive tackle Larry Triplett in free agency. Tripplett's loss will probably be minimal, because the strength of the defense is a front four that includes two of the AFC's best pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and a big-play safety in Bob Sanders. The shift of Raheem Brock inside to tackle was designed to give Mathis more playing time and more chances to make big plays.

But replacing Thornton might be more difficult. There was not great depth at the position to begin with, although starter Cato June has developed into a Pro Bowl-caliber player and middle linebacker Gary Brackett is steady. But who replaces Thornton? Dungy's first thought is Gilbert Gardner, who has not done much in his first two seasons. Like most Dungy defensive players, Gardner does not have great size, but he has speed and quickness. If he can't handle the job, it's a problem because backups Tyjuan Hagler and Keyon Whiteside have little experience and are coming off injuries.

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So the guys to watch will be Rhodes, Addai and Gardner, because they must answer questions far more significant than the ones being asked about Peyton Manning's ability to win the big game. The larger question is, will they get to one again.

Hot seat
Dominic Rhodes. Replacing James is a thankless task, but if Rhodes can duplicate his 2001 season, when he rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored nine touchdowns as a rookie, it will go a long way to taking the pressure off him, Manning and the rookie Addai, who was drafted to be the long-term replacement. But will either Rhodes or Addai pick up the blitz to protect Manning the way James did?

Overheard
Despite all he has accomplished, there are people who are wondering if Peyton Manning can win the “big one.” This has been a universal problem for many quarterbacks before him, including John Elway and Roger Staubach, Hall of Fame performers who were doubted and questioned despite their obvious greatness during their careers until their team won a Super Bowl. Despite all his stats, Manning knows until the Colts win the Super Bowl, he will be saddled with the same questions, and it has begun to wear on him. Is that why he has been underproductive in some of the Colts' playoff losses? Is he feeling pressure to do too much and hence not doing enough? Perhaps, but the bigger question weighing on his mind is the stark reality that the Colts are running out of time. Manning knows if they don't win it all soon they'll have to start rebuildiing, and that could trap him in a loser's cycle he is hoping to avoid.

Outlook
How can it be anything but rosy, even with the loss of James? The Colts still have one of the most productive offenses, and a young and improving defense. They may be running out of time to win a Super Bowl, but they're not running out of gas quite yet.

Prediction
First.

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