U.S. population nears 300 million milestone

Baby boomers turn 60
America is getting older, too — the oldest baby boomers turn 60 this year — and there have been consequences. Private pensions are failing at an alarming rate and Social Security, if left unchanged, is projected to drain the money in its trust fund by 2041.

Twelve percent of the U.S. population is 65 or older, a share that is projected to grow. But two factors keep America younger than Europe: higher fertility rates and immigration.

The United States has a fertility rate of 2.05, about enough to maintain a stable population. The U.S. also adds people through immigration, something many European countries have shunned.

About 40 percent of U.S. population growth comes from immigration, both legal and illegal, according to the Census Bureau. However, if the fertility rate remains unchanged, all of America’s population increase will eventually come from immigration, Butz said.

The immigration issue has preoccupied Washington and much of the country for the past year, with Congress working on legislation that would tighten borders and, perhaps, create an avenue to citizenship for many of the 11 million to 12 million illegal immigrants.

Advocates argue that immigrants take jobs that would go unfilled by people born in this country. They note that the number of immigrants in the U.S. has nearly quadrupled in the past 40 years, to about 36 million, and unemployment remains low.

Opponents accuse immigrants of driving down wages and adding to an increasingly crowded country.

“Population growth kind of cuts both ways,” said Steven Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates tighter restrictions on immigration.

“If you are someone who sells cars for a living, you’ve got more people to sell cars to,” he said. “But if you are someone who drives, you have a lot more cars to contend with.”

Poll: Population fears
A USA Today/Gallup Poll found that 39 percent of adults think U.S. population growth is a major problem, and 57 percent think it will be a major problem in the future.

But even with immigration, the nation’s growth rate is slowing. The number of people had been doubling about every half century, from 75 million in 1900 to 150 million in 1950. The Census Bureau projects it will hit 300 million sometime in October.

By 2050, the United States is projected to have about 420 million people.

Many developing countries, meanwhile, are facing population explosions. India is projected to add 473 million people by 2050 for a new total of 1.6 billion, sending it past China as the world’s most populous country.

Some smaller nations will grow significantly as well, with Uganda projected to more than quadruple its population and Niger projected to more than triple its size.

At the other end is Ukraine, which is projected to lose more than 40 percent of its population, shrinking to 26 million.

China, with its controversial one-child policy, is expected to maintain a stable population for the next four decades, leaving it the second most populous country. The United States would remain third.

“Most people would consider moderate population growth preferable to the alternatives,” said Kohler, the sociology professor. “I would say that’s where the U.S. falls.”

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