In Mexico, a choice between change, status quo

Old political machine
Some seasoned observers say that in spite of the tight race between Calderón and López Obrador, it's premature to count out the entity that, before the rise of Fox, ruled Mexico for 71 years: the Institutional Revolutionary Party, best known by its Spanish-language initials, PRI.

"The PRI does have a very strong apparatus to turn out the vote," said U.S-trained political consultant Julio Madrazo, "The only real national machinery belongs to the PRI."

But the party's candidate, Roberto Madrazo, 53 (no relation to consultant Julio), is trailing in the most recent polls by about seven percent and facing defections from his own party. 

Campaigning in the Mexican state of Coahuila, bordering Texas, Madrazo told supporters, "People want results. And the PRI knows how to deliver." 

Now he hopes that his party's seasoned stalwarts will deliver votes for him, something that might put him over the top if the voter turnout is far lower than the expected 62 to 64 percent.

Dresser, the political scientist, disagrees. "Those are the PRI's fantasies," she said, arguing that Madrazo has run a lackluster campaign. But she added, "The PRI will continue to be a political force in this country," noting that the party still has considerable power in the Mexican congress, frequently using that clout to block legislation proposed by President Fox.

Negativity not drawing in voters
One thing that may keep the turnout low is the negative tone of the campaign.

Both sides have run attack ads — partly the product of American political consultants hired by both sides — with Calderón comparing López Obrador to leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and López Obrador trying to portray Calderón as a puppet of the rich. 

"The campaign has gotten to be very negative, very dirty," said Dresser, "with lies and accusations being flung from both sides."

That has confused many of the voters in Mexico, with 15 percent of them listed as "undecided" in some polls.

Missing: Discussion of illegal immigration
With the focus on negative personal attacks, most of the experts say there's little talk of the heated debate over illegal immigration going on north of the border. 

But while both men have pledged to maintain good relations with the United States, López Obrador uses more confrontational rhetoric when talking about foreign relations. "The next President of Mexico won't be the lackey of any foreign government," he insisted during a rally on Tuesday.

All the candidates agree that Mexico needs to improve its economy so fewer people have to head north in search of jobs. And this time around, candidates aren't doing much "gringo bashing."

"A Mexican presidential hopeful can no longer bash the United States," said Dresser, "When ten percent of Mexico's population lives north of the border."

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