Nancy Johnson’s battle to hold her House seat

Outside groups enter the fray
According to Reiter, the UConn political science professor, making the connections between Johnson and the culture of corruption accusation against the national Republican Party is essential for Murphy to win the election. And he’s getting some help.  

Peggy Kiely a registered Democrat from New Fairfield, who has supported Johnson in the past, first heard of Johnson’s connections to drug companies in a robocall left on her answering machine. Since then she’s received several calls, some automated, some from individuals, always unidentified, highlighting Johnson’s links to business, her environmental voting record, and most concerning to voters like Kiely, Johnson's vote to cut entitlement programs.

“I like Nancy Johnson, but I wasn’t happy to hear that she voted in the ways she did,”  said Kiely, a teacher, who values social programs. “I won’t be voting for Nancy.”

Voters like Kiely are why MoveOn.org executive director, Eli Pariser, says Johnson’s district is ripe for the picking. MoveOn has launched a series of ads against Johnson called “Caught Red-Handed,” which claim Johnson’s votes on the energy bill and prescription drugs put her in the same boat as Dick Cheney, Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff.

Media watchdog groups like FactCheck.org have criticized the ads. And Johnson fired back with ads claiming that Murphy is connected to groups like MoveOn that compared America’s leaders to Nazis. 

Pariser remains unperturbed.  Polling by Greenberg, Quinlan & Rosen has shown that Johnson’s support in the district dropped nine points among likely voters who saw the MoveOn ads. 

But the ads have hurt Murphy who has distanced himself, saying many voters attributed MoveOn’s attacks on Johnson to him. 

Medicare, a surprising ace in the hole
The backlash Murphy faced prove that focusing on Johnson’s record could be a double-edged sword.

According to Walter, Johnson's  “biggest problem is if there’s an anti-incumbent, anti-status quo mood in the fall. If Johnson can keep it local, she’ll win. She has a great track record in that district.”

Murphy campaigns on two tacks. The first emphasizes that winning the district is critical if Democrats are to take back the House. The second attacks Johnson on what she delivers for Connecticut.  He highlights her environmental rating from the league of Conservation voters, 50 percent, and her votes with the Republican leadership on energy and the budget. And he spends a lot of time on Medicare.

But so does Nancy Johnson.

Johnson touts her role in the Medicare bill, and the onus is on Murphy to prove it’s not working for Connecticut residents.  If the Senior Sunshine Center in New Fairfield is any illustration that may be a difficult case to make.

“Nothing generates more of a buzz with this group than Medicare,” said Cindy White, the town’s social services director.

The topic causes an eruption of opinionated chatter with the center’s women’s book group. Confusing and frustrating are the adjectives of choice. And while no one seems to quite get how it works; the consensus is that the plan has worked for seniors who’ve enrolled.

Eleanor Freund said she was shocked when her pharmacy actually accepted her new drug card, saving her nearly $200 on blood pressure medication. 

Freund’s friend, Katherine DeBellis, pipes in that she too was worried, but “I used the card, and I saved $50. That’s not bad, right?” 

When Elizabeth Ricci was signing her husband up for a new plan, she called Johnson’s constituent office for help, and got a call back within a day.

Similar success stories come from senior centers in neighboring towns. And Johnson has earned extra kudos in her district by opposing the administration’s insistence on penalizing seniors who missed the sign up deadline. 

Most of the seniors interviewed weren’t familiar with Johnson’s connection to drug companies, and many felt that attacks against Johnson were unfair. “I don’t like them treating Nancy this way,” said Freund.

Even though New Fairfield has only been in Johnson’s district since 2002, she has made numerous visits to the town’s senior center.

Voting on Washington
When Chris Murphy first ran for office he faced a 14 year Republican incumbent for a seat in the Connecticut House. Murphy says he won with shoe leather politics.

“I made a commitment to knock on every door."  Murphy says he plans on winning in November with a grassroots army and the knowledge of what it takes to run against Johnson from the Koskoff contest in 1996.

While persistence helps, he's also raised enough money to become part of the Democratic National Committee’s Red to Blue program, which provides candidates with exposure to donors nationally. Murphy reported $785,739 in contributions at the end of the first quarter, but it's dwarfed by Johnson's nearly $2 million.

It’s those kinds of figures that have the experts putting their money on Johnson.

But if 5^th District voters like Lenny Walsh are any indication, there’s still room for an upset. Walsh describes himself as a Rockefeller Republican who has long been a fan of Connecticut Republicans like Johnson and Chris Shays. This year, Walsh has given money to Murphy, Ned Lamont and Diane Farrell, but he says his vote is still up for grabs.

“Nancy Johnson is no Tom DeLay,” he says, “But I’d vote differently, if I think there’s a reasonable chance to get rid of those guys.”

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