International Periscope

July 3-10, 2006 issue -

North Korea: Diplomatic Misfire
Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile? At the weekend, Kim Jong Il's intentions were still unclear. The capricious North Korea leader likes to attract attention periodically—usually to gain leverage in talks over his nuclear weapons program—but this time he and his government may have miscalculated. Just by raising the possibility that it might launch a Taepodong-2 missile, Pyongyang has succeeded in stiffening the resolve of its enemies and created headaches for its friends.

North Korea's best buddies, China and South Korea, joined a chorus of censure. Seoul suggested that it might cut food and fertilizer aid to the North, should it launch, and former South Korean president Kim Dae Jung, the architect of the "Sunshine Policy," canceled a planned trip to Pyongyang. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao urged North Korea to abandon the idea of a launch and to concentrate on returning to the Six-Party Talks. If they're ignored, both Seoul and Beijing may find it hard to continue their policies of engaging Kim. Bruce Klingner, a Korea analyst at Eurasia Group, points out that even before the missile reports, the North's surprise cancellation of a planned cross-border rail link with the South had led many to question the wisdom of the Sunshine Policy.

Those already more skeptical of Kim found justification for their hard line. In Japan, the threat was a gift to archconservative Shinzo Abe, who has made his career bashing North Korea and is now maneuvering to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party recently passed a measure allowing for economic sanctions against the North—and now has a good reason to implement them. The Bush administration will surely use this episode to reaffirm its tough diplomatic stance—and the need for a $100 billion missile defense system, whose development, with the help of Japan, is continuing.

—Christian Caryl